Ideology and interests : a hierarchical Bayesian approach to spatial party preferences

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dc.contributor.advisorJessee, Stephen A., 1980-
dc.creatorMohanty, Peter Cushneren
dc.date.accessioned2013-12-04T20:37:52Zen
dc.date.accessioned2017-05-11T22:39:30Z
dc.date.available2017-05-11T22:39:30Z
dc.date.issued2013-08en
dc.date.submittedAugust 2013en
dc.date.updated2013-12-04T20:37:52Zen
dc.descriptiontexten
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a spatial utility model of support for multiple political parties. The model includes a "valence" term, which I reparameterize to include both party competence and the voters' key sociodemographic concerns. The paper shows how this spatial utility model can be interpreted as a hierarchical model using data from the 2009 European Elections Study. I estimate this model via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) using a block Gibbs sampler and show that the model can capture broad European-wide trends while allowing for significant amounts of heterogeneity. This approach, however, which assumes a normal dependent variable, is only able to partially reproduce the data generating process. I show that the data generating process can be reproduced more accurately with an ordered probit model. Finally, I discuss trade-offs between parsimony and descriptive richness and other practical challenges that may be encountered when v building models of party support and make recommendations for capturing the best of both approaches.en
dc.description.departmentStatisticsen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2152/22529en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.subjectHierarchical modelsen
dc.subjectGeneralized linear modelsen
dc.subjectMarkov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)en
dc.subjectPublic opinionen
dc.subjectPolitical partiesen
dc.subjectEuropean Unionen
dc.titleIdeology and interests : a hierarchical Bayesian approach to spatial party preferencesen

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