Browsing by Subject "hurricane"
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Item An evaluation of the potential of coastal wetlands for hurricane surge and wave energy reduction(2009-05-15) Loder, Nicholas MasonGiven the past history and future risk of storm surge in the United States, alternative storm protection techniques are needed to protect vital sectors of the economy and population, particularly within southeastern Louisiana. It is widely hypothesized that coastal wetlands offer protection from storm surge and wave action, though the extent of this protection is unknown due to the complex physics behind vegetated flow dynamics. This thesis presents numerical modeling results that estimate the relative sensitivity of waves and storm surge to characteristics embodied by coastal wetlands. An idealized grid domain and 400 km2 (20 km by 20 km) marsh feature provide a controlled environment for evaluating marsh characteristics, including bottom friction, elevation, and continuity. Marsh continuity is defined as the ratio of healthy marsh area to open water area within the total wetland area. It is determined that increased bottom friction reduces storm surge levels and wave heights. Through the roughening of the bottom from sandy to covered with tall grass, it is estimated that waves may be dampened by up to 1.2 m at the coast, and peak surge may be reduced by as much as 35%. The lowering of marsh elevation generally increases wave heights and decreases surge levels, as expected. A 3.5 m decrease in marsh elevation results in as much as a 2.6 m increase in wave height, and up to a 15% decrease in surge levels. Reductions in marsh continuity enhance surge conveyance into and out of the marsh. For storms of low surge potential, surge is increased by as much as 70% at the coast due to decreasing marsh continuity from 100% to 50%, while for storms of high surge potential, surge is decreased by 5%. This indicates that for storms of high surge potential, a segmented marsh may offer comparable surge protection to that of a continuous marsh. Wave heights are generally increased within the marsh due to the transmission of wave energy through marsh channels. Results presented in this thesis may assist in the justification of coastal wetland mitigation, and optimize marsh restoration in terms of providing maximum storm protection.Item An Experimental Setup to Study the Settling Behavior of Epoxy Based Fluids(2012-07-16) El-Mallawany, Ibrahim IsmailThis thesis is part of a project funded by the Minerals Management Service (MMS) (now Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE)) to study the use of epoxy to plug hurricane damaged wells. Some of the wells destroyed by hurricanes are damaged to an extent that vertical intervention from the original wellhead is not possible. These wells have to be plugged to prevent future flows through the well to protect the environment. Cement is usually the preferred plugging material because it is very cheap compared to other materials like epoxy. However, cement can easily get contaminated by sea water or brines present in wells as completion fluids. Therefore, to be able to use cement it has to be placed at the bottom of the well by drilling an offset well all the way to the bottom of the original well. Epoxy, on the other hand, being much more chemically stable can be placed at the very top of the well and let to settle by gravity without fearing contamination. Therefore, in wells described above, epoxy can be much more economical than cement. Placing epoxy at the top of a well and letting it settle by gravity can also be more economical than using cement in other situations such as in a leaking annulus of a well where circulation in that annulus is not possible, or if a well that has been previously plugged starts leaking again after the rig has been removed. Placing epoxy in the manner described can be achieved without using a rig and therefore, would be much more economical than cement. One of the most important factors in this process is to be able to predict the settling velocity of the epoxy to be able to determine the required setting time of the epoxy so that the epoxy does not set prematurely. In addition, it is important to evaluate whether the epoxy can successfully settle to the bottom and how much of it will adhere to the pipe walls while freefalling. This thesis aims to design, build and run an experimental setup that would help study the settling velocity of epoxy. Some experiments were conducted to assess the effect of different parameters that might affect the settling velocity of the epoxy such as the epoxy?s density, the annulus size and the inclination angle. The results show that the settling velocity was proportional to the epoxy?s density. Also the settling speed was almost double in experiments done at an angle compared to experiments done at vertical position. The annulus size did not have any clear effect on the settling speed. The adhesion to the pipe walls was found to be proportional to the epoxy?s viscosity and angle of inclination and was inversely proportional to the annulus size.Item Assessment of the Potential Effect of Climate Change on Hurricane Risk and Vulnerability in Florida(2014-12-05) Ruiz, MichelleHurricanes are a yearly threat to the eastern and Gulf coasts of the United States. An increase in frequency and intensity of hurricanes is a possible and dangerous consequence of future climate change. To assess the threat of more frequent and intense hurricanes, this research will address how climate change will affect future hurricane activity in Florida. A greater understanding of how climate change will affect hurricanes is vital for regions, such as Florida, that are vulnerable to these powerful storms. Hurricane return periods were calculated for all Florida counties based on 1900-2010. Hurricane landfalls were quantified using a dynamic wind model which allowed for the spatial extent of each storm to be examined. A meta-analysis of the existing literature on the effects of climate change on hurricane behavior was performed. Using the findings from the meta-analysis, a sensitivity analysis was performed to determine how climate change may affect hurricane damage and loss for Florida. The HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model was used to estimate losses and damage from hurricane winds based on Florida?s growing population and increasing coastal development. Results show that wind-derived return periods more accurately depict the distribution of a storm?s wind field. Counties in southern Florida have the lowest return periods based on the track-derived and wind-derived return periods. Based on the meta-analysis, hurricane intensity is expected to increase by 2 to 11%. Hurricane frequency is expected to decrease or remain the same and storm tracks are not expected to change. The sensitivity analysis examined the influence of climate change on baseline (current), moderate (15% increase), and extreme (35% increase) TC intensity scenarios. The most developed and populated regions are the most vulnerable to hurricane damages and losses. Based on the boxplots, the spread of percent values increases for building damage, economic losses, and shelter needs as storm intensity increases. The spread in the data shown in the scatterplots and boxplots is storm specific. This research found that southeastern Florida is at highest risk of future hurricane landfalls and most vulnerable to hurricane damages and losses.Item Benthic Function and Structure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone: Sediment Biogeochemistry and Macrobenthic Community Dynamics in the Dead Zone(2012-07-16) Nunnally, CliftonCoastal low oxygen areas are expanding globally and are predicted to increase in size and duration due to climatic changes associated with a warming ocean. The Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone (GoMHZ) is the second largest regularly occurring hypoxic habitat in the world and has increased in size since it was first mapped in the 1980s. The Mississippi Atchafalaya River System (MARS) floods the Louisiana continental shelf with fresh water high in nitrogenous compounds enhancing primary production which sinks to the sea floor. Stratification that occurs as a result of density differences and coastal currents creates a strong pycnocline that prevents bottom waters from being aerated causing seasonally hypoxic bottom waters (< 2.0 mg L^-1). The Mechanisms Controlling Hypoxia (MCH) project (hypoxia.tamu.edu) made regular cruises during 2004-2005 and 2007-2009 to the GoMHZ performing shelf wide hydrographic surveys and occupying central mooring sites within theoretical zones of differing hypoxic potential. Sediment cores were collected for incubation experiments using Batch Microincubation Chambers (BMICs) to measure rates of sediment community oxygen consumption and nutrient regeneration. Results of incubation experiments characterized sediments as net sources of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, mostly ammonium, and silicate and a net sink of phosphate. Modeling simulations of benthic-pelagic coupling focused in the western study zones related field measurements of benthic nutrient regeneration and primary production to important processes that maintain summertime hypoxia when surface waters are nitrogen limited. After incubations were completed macrofaunal individuals were removed from the cores enumerated and identified to the lowest possible taxon. Macrofauna communities in 2004-2005 were dominated by a hypoxia tolerant community dominated by polychaetes. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September of 2005 drastically reorganized macrobenthic communities decreasing abundances and negatively impacting diversity. These new communities collapsed under hypoxic stresses potentially impacting the ability of demersal foragers to utilize an important food resource. Large variations in biogeochemical fluxes and patchy distribution of fauna impeded the delineation of significant zones in benthic function and structure.Item Ecology of Sandy Beach Intertidal Macroinfauna Along the Upper Texas Coast(2012-07-16) Witmer, Angela DawnOpen coastlines are dynamic environments which experience seasonal and long-term physical changes. Sandy beaches line much of this coastline. As part of the requirements for Ph.D., I conducted a study examining intertidal macrofaunal and sedimentological features along the upper Texas coastal from 2007-2009. Four sites near Sabine Pass, High Island, Jamaica Beach, and Surfside Beach were selected. Beach transects were established at each site with six intertidal stations identified for collecting macrofaunal sediment core samples. Although sandy beaches are low in species diversity, the taxa found survive under dynamic and harsh conditions. In disturbance dominated environments, sandy beach fauna tended to be influenced by physical factors, instead of biologically controlled ones. The taxa found in this study include primary and secondary successional organisms which are adapted to handle disturbances. 98% of the benthic specimens identified belonged to six taxa with 92% from two taxa, Scolelepis squamata (38%) and Haustoriidae (54%). Macrofaunal zonation varied between sites because of beach geomorphology. On September 13, 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall on the upper Texas coast causing extensive damage and erosion. Roughly 0.5 m of vertical height was lost at each beach post-storm. Total macrofaunal abundance declined by 87% from pre-storm counts. During the recovery the dominant two taxa, Haustoriidae and Scolelepis squamata, made up 82.78% of the total benthic specimens identified with haustoriids making up 68% of the total benthic taxa. The beach community remained dominated by four of the previously identified, six most common and abundant taxa. Recovery of sandy beaches often was hindered by increased vehicular traffic, sand removal and cleaning. Beach ecosystems have shown a high natural ecological resilience, but do not preclude the possibilities of habitat extinction and/or catastrophic community regime shift. Beaches are highly susceptible to human exploitation and global climate change, such as sea level rise. Knowledge of beach macrofaunal diversity along the Texas coast, such as haustoriids, could be used to estimate beach health and better evaluate the upward effects of natural disturbance, pollution and human uses on an integral part of the coastal ecosystem.Item Ensemble Statistics and Error Covariance of a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane(2010-01-16) Rigney, Matthew C.This thesis presents an investigation of ensemble Gaussianity, the effect of non- Gaussianity on covariance structures, storm-centered data assimilation techniques, and the relationship between commonly used data assimilation variables and the underlying dynamics for the case of Hurricane Humberto. Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), a comparison of data assimilation results in Storm-centered and Eulerian coordinate systems is made. In addition, the extent of the non-Gaussianity of the model ensemble is investigated and quantified. The effect of this non-Gaussianity on covariance structures, which play an integral role in the EnKF data assimilation scheme, is then explored. Finally, the correlation structures calculated from a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) ensemble forecast of several state variables are investigated in order to better understand the dynamics of this rapidly intensifying cyclone. Hurricane Humberto rapidly intensified in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from a tropical disturbance to a strong category one hurricane with 90 mph winds in 24 hours. Numerical models did not capture the intensification of Humberto well. This could be due in large part to initial condition error, which can be addressed by data assimilation schemes. Because the EnKF scheme is a linear theory developed on the assumption of the normality of the ensemble distribution, non-Gaussianity in the ensemble distribution used could affect the EnKF update. It is shown that multiple state variables do indeed show significant non-Gaussianity through an inspection of statistical moments. In addition, storm-centered data assimilation schemes present an alternative to traditional Eulerian schemes by emphasizing the centrality of the cyclone to the assimilation window. This allows for an update that is most effective in the vicinity of the storm center, which is of most concern in mesoscale events such as Humberto. Finally, the effect of non-Gaussian distributions on covariance structures is examined through data transformations of normal distributions. Various standard transformations of two Gaussian distributions are made. Skewness, kurtosis, and correlation between the two distributions are taken before and after the transformations. It can be seen that there is a relationship between a change in skewness and kurtosis and the correlation between the distributions. These effects are then taken into consideration as the dynamics contributing to the rapid intensification of Humberto are explored through correlation structures.Item Estimating Hurricane Outage and Damage Risk in Power Distribution System(2009-05-15) Han, Seung RyongHurricanes have caused severe damage to the electric power system throughout the Gulf coast region of the U.S., and electric power is critical to post-hurricane disaster response as well as to long-term recovery for impacted areas. Managing hurricane risks and properly preparing for post-storm recovery efforts requires rigorous methods for estimating the number and location of power outages, customers without power, and damage to power distribution systems. This dissertation presents a statistical power outage prediction model, a statistical model for predicting the number of customers without power, statistical damage estimation models, and a physical damage estimation model for the gulf coast region of the U.S. The statistical models use negative binomial generalized additive regression models as well as negative binomial generalized linear regression models for estimating the number of power outages, customers without power, damaged poles and damaged transformers in each area of a utility company?s service area. The statistical models developed based on transformed data replace hurricane indicator variables, dummy variables, with physically measurable variables, enabling future predictions to be based on only well-understood characteristics of hurricanes. The physical damage estimation model provides reliable predictions of the number of damaged poles for future hurricanes by integrating fragility curves based on structural reliability analysis with observed data through a Bayesian approach. The models were developed using data about power outages during nine hurricanes in three states served by a large, investor-owned utility company in the Gulf Coast region.Item Forms and Distributions of Hurricane Ike Backflow and Scour Features: Bolivar Peninsula, Texas(2011-08-08) Potts, Michael KillgoreThe storm surge from Hurricane Ike inundated Bolivar Peninsula as well as pooled up (~4 meters above sea level) in the Galveston Bay System behind Bolivar. After the hurricane passed, this water flowed back over the peninsula for about 19 hours, causing a great deal of coastal destruction. Analysis of post-Hurricane Ike aerial photography and Lidar data revealed the development of dramatically different scour and backflow features in the beach and dune environments along Bolivar Peninsula, Texas. Using Ward's cluster analysis, the 454 identified features were grouped according to shape and size characteristics generated by an object-oriented shape analysis program. Five distinct groups of features emerged from the cluster analysis. Group 1 features were small and compact, distributed mostly in the west; Group 2 features were large and dendritic in nature, distributed where the peninsula was narrow. Group 3 features had a longshore orientation with many of them resembling piano keys, distributed in the east. Group 4 features were oriented longshore and ornate in shape. Many of them were similar in shape to Group 2 or 3 features though statistically different enough to be grouped alone; they were distributed mostly in the eastern half of the study area. Group 5 features tended to be elongated, oriented cross-shore, nonbranching, and distributed mostly in the east. At least four flow environments caused characteristic forms. The first flow environment is typified by seaward flowing water encountering a road parallel with the coastline. The water flowing over the road scours deeply on the leeward side (seaward side), denuding beach sediments down to the resistant mud layer (Groups 3 and 4). The second flow environment was caused by a geotube, which breached during the storm and channelized flow through the breaches (Groups 2 and 5). The third flow environment had a comparatively high elevation, high development, and shore-perpendicular roads (Group 2). The fourth flow environment was typified by wide beaches backed by dunes (lost in the storm) as well as flat vegetated areas. Water flowing seaward over the vegetation scoured deeply into troughs after it came off the vegetation (Groups 1, 3, and 4).Item HURRICANE INDUCED WAVE AND SURGE FORCES ON BRIDGE DECKS(2010-01-16) McPherson, Ronald L.The damaging effects of hurricane landfall on US coastal bridges have been studied using physical model testing. Hurricane bridge damage and failure susceptibility has become very evident, especially during hurricane seasons 2004 and 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of storm surge and high waves caused by a hurricane can produce substantial loads on bridge decks leading to complete bridge failure. Several theoretical methods have been developed to estimate these forces but have not been tested in a laboratory setting for a typical bridge section. Experiments were done using a large-scale 3-D wave basin located at the Haynes Coastal Engineering Laboratory at Texas A&M University to provide estimates of the horizontal and vertical forces for several conditions to compare with the forces predicted with the existing models. The wave force results show no strong correlation between the actual force measured and the predicted force of existing theoretical methods. A new method is derived from the existing theoretical methods. This model shows a strong correlation with both the measured horizontal and vertical forces.Item Modification and recovery of the shoreface of Matagorda Peninsula, Texas, following the landfall of Hurricane Claudette: the role of antecedent geology on short-term shoreface morphodynamics(Texas A&M University, 2006-08-16) Majzlik, Edward JamesMatagorda Peninsula is located along an interfluvial region of the central Texas coast in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The Pleistocene Beaumont Clay underlies the coastal plain and inner continental shelf and controls the general slope of the coast in this region. This clay surface also creates low accommodation space for the preservation of modern sediments. As a result, only a thin (1 m) layer of transgressive Holocene muddy sand extends throughout the lower shoreface. On 15 July, 2003, Hurricane Claudette (Category 1) made landfall on the peninsula. Following the storm, the shoreface was found to be an extensively eroded surface. Most obvious on this surface was an area containing numerous scour pits on the lower shoreface. These pits extended through the Holocene sediment and into the underlying Beaumont Clay. By the following July, the shoreface exhibited a relatively flat and featureless appearance. Rapid infilling of the pits was attributed to the high sediment supply to the area from converging longshore currents and by the relatively high accommodation space offered by the scoured areas. A large amount of sediment was removed from the lower shoreface where the formation of scour pits occurred. This sediment would have been available for depositionin storm layers both inshore and offshore of the scoured area. Within scour pits, accommodation space was high, resulting in sediment deposition and rapid infilling of the pits. Outside of the scour pits, accommodation space remained low and sediment deposition did not occur. Preservation potential of the sediment record on the shoreface was low and was controlled by cycles of erosion and deposition during storm events. Antecedent geology of the shoreface and the sedimentary processes occurring during and after the storm supported arguments against the assumptions used by the classic "profile of equilibrium" model. Finally, the heavily scoured surface represents a geohazard to development of nearshore regions.Item Public Housing after Hurricane, Urban Renewal or Removal? The Case Studies of Beaumont and Galveston, Texas.(2013-05-01) Tran, Tho Ngo DucDecent housing is a goal for many people not only in the United States but elsewhere in the world. A house becomes the symbol of family spirit whether it is a single-family or multiple-family home. Public housing in the United States is housing of ?last resort,? for families whose incomes do not allow them to find housing in the private market. Yet, many studies focusing on public housing find a host of social issues plaguing these units. The US Government has initiated various programs to improve the quality of public housing as well as the living condition of local resident through agenda of Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). HOPE VI is one of the major programs that focuses on distressed public housing. This program funds local government and housing authority in order to revitalized or rebuild public housing. This program has been very successful in providing high-quality housing for public housing residents. However, as any type of construction, housing usually received great damage when natural disaster happening. It can be partly damaged or completely destroyed due to the direct and indirect effects of disaster. Public housing, like most affordable housing, is often built in highly vulnerable areas, such as floodplains or other low-lying areas. When disasters such as hurricanes strike, housing located in these areas is likely to receive the greatest damage and recovery may be slower. This study looks at the case study of public housing in Galveston and Beaumont after Hurricane Ike (2008) and Rita (2005). After Hurricane Rita in 2005, Beaumont has rebuilt some public housing development with a HOPE VI grant awarded in 2007. These areas have successfully rebuilt through the cooperation of housing authority, local government, local residents, and developers. In contrast, Galveston could not reach agreement about the destiny of public housing after Hurricane Ike in 2008. This story becomes more serious when HUD announced that if Galveston cannot rebuild public housing in disaster area, they must refund the money to the federal Government. These two cities provide a comparative case study of the rebuilding of public housing after disaster, where on one successfully rebuilt while other did not. By looking at the secondary data sources, this research analyzes the situation of these places in different period: before the Hurricane, when the Hurricane happened, and after the Hurricane. The paper will address the similarities as well as differences between two case studies in term of historical profile, demography, public housing program characteristics, damage, and recovery. Besides, economic change after hurricane approached is addressed. The housing situation will be further analyzed in Galveston to clearly show the obstacles in which this city coped with. Finally, the study will conclude by suggesting some implications for theory, housing policy, management, and further research.Item Reliability Evaluation of Composite Power Systems Including the Effects of Hurricanes(2011-02-22) Liu, YongAdverse weather such as hurricanes can significantly affect the reliability of composite power systems. Predicting the impact of hurricanes can help utilities for better preparedness and make appropriate restoration arrangements. In this dissertation, the impact of hurricanes on the reliability of composite power systems is investigated. Firstly, the impact of adverse weather on the long-term reliability of composite power systems is investigated by using Markov cut-set method. The Algorithms for the implementation is developed. Here, two-state weather model is used. An algorithm for sequential simulation is also developed to achieve the same goal. The results obtained by using the two methods are compared. The comparison shows that the analytical method can obtain comparable results and meantime it can be faster than the simulation method. Secondly, the impact of hurricanes on the short-term reliability of composite power systems is investigated. A fuzzy inference system is used to assess the failure rate increment of system components. Here, different methods are used to build two types of fuzzy inference systems. Considering the fact that hurricanes usually last only a few days, short-term minimal cut-set method is proposed to compute the time-specific system and nodal reliability indices of composite power systems. The implementation demonstrates that the proposed methodology is effective and efficient and is flexible in its applications. Thirdly, the impact of hurricanes on the short-term reliability of composite power systems including common-cause failures is investigated. Here, two methods are proposed to archive this goal. One of them uses a Bayesian network to alleviate the dimensionality problem of conditional probability method. Another method extends minimal cut-set method to accommodate common-cause failures. The implementation results obtained by using the two methods are compared and their discrepancy is analyzed. Finally, the proposed methods in this dissertation are also applicable to other applications in power systems.Item Studies on Hazard Characterization for Performance-based Structural Design(2010-07-14) Wang, YuePerformance-based engineering (PBE) requires advances in hazard characterization, structural modeling, and nonlinear analysis techniques to fully and efficiently develop the fragility expressions and other tools forming the basis for risk-based design procedures. This research examined and extended the state-of-the-art in hazard characterization (wind and surge) and risk-based design procedures (seismic). State-of-the-art hurricane models (including wind field, tracking and decay models) and event-based simulation techniques were used to characterize the hurricane wind hazard along the Texas coast. A total of 10,000 years of synthetic hurricane wind speed records were generated for each zip-code in Texas and were used to statistically characterize the N-year maximum hurricane wind speed distribution for each zip-code location and develop design non-exceedance probability contours for both coastal and inland areas. Actual recorded wind and surge data, the hurricane wind field model, hurricane size parameters, and a measure of storm kinetic energy were used to develop wind-surge and wind-surge-energy models, which can be used to characterize the wind-surge hazard at a level of accuracy suitable for PBE applications. These models provide a powerful tool to quickly and inexpensively estimate surge depths at coastal locations in advance of a hurricane landfall. They also were used to create surge hazard maps that provide storm surge height non-exceedance probability contours for the Texas coast. The simulation tools, wind field models, and statistical analyses, make it possible to characterize the risk-consistent hurricane events considering both hurricane intensity and size. The proposed methodology for event-based hurricane hazard characterization, when coupled with a hurricane damage model, can also be used for regional loss estimation and other spatial impact analyses. In considering seismic hazard, a risk-consistent framework for displacement-based seismic design of engineered multistory woodframe structures was developed. Specifically, a database of probability-based scale factors which can be used in a direct displacement design (DDD) procedure for woodframe buildings was created using nonlinear time-history analyses with suitably scaled ground motions records. The resulting DDD procedure results in more risk-consistent designs and therefore advances the state-of-the-art in displacement-based seismic design of woodframe structures.Item Tradeoff between Investments in Infrastructure and Forecasting when Facing Natural Disaster Risk(2010-07-14) Kim, Seong D.Hurricane Katrina of 2005 was responsible for at least 81 billion dollars of property damage. In planning for such emergencies, society must decide whether to invest in the ability to evacuate more speedily or in improved forecasting technology to better predict the timing and intensity of the critical event. To address this need, we use dynamic programming and Markov processes to model the interaction between the emergency response system and the emergency forecasting system. Simulating changes in the speed of evacuation and in the accuracy of forecasting allows the determination of an optimal mix of these two investments. The model shows that the evacuation improvement and the forecast improvement give different patterns of impact to their benefit. In addition, it shows that the optimal investment decision changes by the budget and the feasible range of improvement.