Browsing by Subject "decision analysis"
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Item Creating a Systems Engineering Approach for the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices(2010-07-14) McNeal, HeatherThe Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) establishes the basic principles for the design, selection, installation, operation, maintenance, and removal of traffic control devices (TCDs). The MUTCD indicates that some TCDs that are required and some are recommended, depending on the situation. However, most TCDs are not required and the decision to use a given TCD in a given situation is typically made by an engineer (or an individual working under engineering supervision) based on a variety of information. Not all engineers have the same degree of experience in making TCD decisions, and not all engineers that make these decisions have traffic engineering expertise. There are many other factors not addressed by the MUTCD that can lead to differences in the decision-making process. To assist engineers with evaluating these factors, this research developed a decision analysis process to assist engineers with making TCD decisions. The value of this research is the idea that the decision analysis process for TCD can be modeled and analyzed using appropriate factors. The developed factors include need, impact, influence, and cost. The process developed in this research applies two elements to each factor. One element compares the importance of each factor among all the other factors, and the other incorporates the engineer's judgment into the TCD decision. The first element described uses a decision analysis method, analytic hierarchy process, to determine the weights for each factor, or coefficients, as applied generally to a TCD. The second uses a mixture of quantitative and qualitative engineering judgment to determine the degree to which the factor applies to the TCD situation, or situational variable. The output of this process was a utility value that can be compared to a scale and determine the installation value of the device. This process will contribute to more uniform decisions amongst all levels of experience in TCD decision-making. Additional research that could expand on this developed process would include data collection on typical importance values for each factor as applied to a TCD and on decision scales for specific TCD situations. When applying this research, it is important to remember that it is not the intent of this process to remove engineering judgment. This is an important part of the process and should remain as such.Item Risk Measures Constituting Risk Metrics for Decision Making in the Chemical Process Industry(2012-02-14) Prem, KatherineThe occurrence of catastrophic incidents in the process industry leave a marked legacy of resulting in staggering economic and societal losses incurred by the company, the government and the society. The work described herein is a novel approach proposed to help predict and mitigate potential catastrophes from occurring and for understanding the stakes at risk for better risk informed decision making. The methodology includes societal impact as risk measures along with tangible asset damage monetization. Predicting incidents as leading metrics is pivotal to improving plant processes and, for individual and societal safety in the vicinity of the plant (portfolio). From this study it can be concluded that the comprehensive judgments of all the risks and losses should entail the analysis of the overall results of all possible incident scenarios. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is most suitable as an overall measure for many scenarios and for large number of portfolio assets. FN-curves and F$-curves can be correlated and this is very beneficial for understanding the trends of historical incidents in the U.S. chemical process industry. Analyzing historical databases can provide valuable information on the incident occurrences and their consequences as lagging metrics (or lagging indicators) for the mitigation of the portfolio risks. From this study it can be concluded that there is a strong statistical relationship between the different consequence tiers of the safety pyramid and Heinrich?s safety pyramid is comparable to data mined from the HSEES database. Furthermore, any chemical plant operation is robust only when a strategic balance is struck between optimal plant operations and, maintaining health, safety and sustaining environment. The balance emerges from choosing the best option amidst several conflicting parameters. Strategies for normative decision making should be utilized for making choices under uncertainty. Hence, decision theory is utilized here for laying the framework for choice making of optimum portfolio option among several competing portfolios. For understanding the strategic interactions of the different contributing representative sets that play a key role in determining the most preferred action for optimum production and safety, the concepts of game theory are utilized and framework has been provided as novel application to chemical process industry.