Browsing by Subject "Supply"
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Item Essays on Oil, Energy, and Oil Self-Sufficiency in the U.S.(2013-09-30) Rowland, Christopher ScottWhen oil prices rise, politicians often call for improvements in energy efficiency or policies that they hope will make the U.S. more ?energy independent.? The argument is that if we consume less oil, domestic supplies will constitute a larger portion of U.S. quantity demanded, mitigating our dependence on potentially unreliable foreign oil sources, thereby lessening U.S. exposure to volatile supply/price fluctuations. Three interrelated issues are addressed in this dissertation. First, the drivers and substitution patterns in U.S. oil demand are explored using structural demand system analysis for energy in the U.S. Second, world oil supply is estimated using the cost structure of world oil reservoirs, which principally depend on reservoir characteristics. Models of both supply and demand yield insight into the feasibility and unintended outcomes of policies or technological advances that reduce oil demand. Finally, the U.S. autarky equilibrium price at the intersection of the U.S. supply and demand curves is considered. Inferences on the economic feasibility for the U.S. to strive towards self-sufficiency in oil are examined including the vulnerability premium associated with national security concerns. The demand model demonstrates that U.S. oil demand is explained as a system of demands for energy, where individuals are committed in the short run to minimum quantities of consumption. In the context of pre-commitments, oil is found to have a higher own-price elasticity (more elastic) at average than is commonly found in the literature. Oil is further demonstrated to be a compliment for natural gas and electricity, and a substitute for coal. Oil production costs and quantities are heavily dependent upon reservoir geology, which has a fixed dispersion around the world. Using this premise, a supply curve composed of world oil reservoirs is generated. Scenario analysis on different world oil demand reductions suggests there are unintended costs of reducing oil demand. Oil producing countries will experience smaller gross domestic products from diminished oil production. Smaller gross domestic products may affect the countries? political stability. The world oil supply curve and cross price elasticities from the demand model are considered together under the most likely scenario of a fall in world oil demand stemming from a 2.5% decrease in U.S. oil demand. These results are used to consider unintended consequences of changes in U.S. oil demand in attempts to achieve or pursue ?energy independence.? These results include the impact on coal, natural gas, and electricity demand; the required change in gasoline demand that could precipitate a 2.5% change in oil demand; the change in U.S. GDP; the change in U.S. ?energy independence? and; the change in political stability of oil producing nations. U.S. supply and demand curves for oil will not intersect in the short run with current technology. The implication is that the vulnerability premium for oil would need to be infinite to justify U.S. self-sufficiency in oil. The U.S., therefore, should not strive towards energy independence in oil.Item Structural Changes in United States Cotton Supply(2010-10-12) Mitchell, Donna MarieAgricultural supply represents the quantity supplied for a given price of a commodity. The supply function is an algebraic representation that shows, in this case, how much yield and acreage output changes from variations in prices and various inputs. Estimating supply functions is an important economic research topic. However, publications on this topic involving applications to agricultural crops are not plentiful, particularly for cotton. This paper focuses on the estimation of cotton supply functions and elasticities within the United States cotton industry. U.S. cotton yields appear to have been dramatically increased in recent years from newer varieties, boll weevil eradication, weather, and other technological improvements. Changes in both productivity and input cost suggest likely changes in supply relationships. Seventeen cotton producing states were divided into homogenous regions. A two equation model was used to estimate the supply functions and elasticities for each region. The results were mixed, depending on the region. There was difficulty in finding good model fits likely due to complexities of biological responses as well as policy distortions. The parameter results suggest that the major determinates of yield were weather and technology. The major determinates of estimating acreage was production in the previous year and policy variables. The overall purpose of this paper was to estimate cotton supply elasticities, which tended to be inelastic across the United States.Item The impact of religious beliefs on the labor force participation of black wives(2011-08) Milkowski, Stephen; Vargas, Andres; Von Ende, TerryWhile the effects of religious beliefs on the labor supply of many ethnic groups have been studied, black wives in the United States have not, because of a lack of suitable data. Many black wives are very religious and church centered, but has been found to supply more labor than other female ethnic groups within the United States. The religious tradition of black wives in the United States differs from that of other ethnic groups due to the fact that the "Black Church" which shaped the religious views of black wives, originated in slavery, an institution that oppressed black Americans. The tradition of the "Black Church" includes a mixture of African traditions and traditional Christian teaching, creating something different and unique in America. I have measured the effect of religiosity on the labor supply of black wives with a logistic regression and the National Survey of Black Americans. The results are somewhat mixed and show that while religiosity is negatively correlated with labor supply, church membership, children?s attendance, and participating in church activities is positively correlated with labor supply due to the social functions of the "Black Church".