Browsing by Subject "Risk perception"
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Item Essays on econometric modeling of subjective perceptions of risks in environment and human health(2009-05-15) Nguyen, To NgocA large body of literature studies the issues of the option price and other ex-ante welfare measures under the microeconomic theory to valuate reductions of risks inherent in environment and human health. However, it does not offer a careful discussion of how to estimate risk reduction values using data, especially the modeling and estimating individual perceptions of risks present in the econometric models. The central theme of my dissertation is the approaches taken for the empirical estimation of probabilistic risks under alternative assumptions about individual perceptions of risk involved: the objective probability, the Savage subjective probability, and the subjective distributions of probability. Each of these three types of risk specifications is covered in one of the three essays. The first essay addresses the problem of empirical estimation of individual willingness to pay for recreation access to public land under uncertainty. In this essay I developed an econometric model and applied it to the case of lottery-rationed hunting permits. The empirical result finds that the model correctly predicts the responses of 84% of the respondents in the Maine moose hunting survey. The second essay addresses the estimation of a logit model for individual binary choices that involve heterogeneity in subjective probabilities. For this problem, I introduce the use of the hierarchical Bayes to estimate, among others, the parameters of distribution of subjective probabilities. The Monte Carlo study finds the estimator asymptotically unbiased and efficient. The third essay addresses the problem of modeling perceived mortality risks from arsenic concentrations in drinking water. I estimated a formal model that allows for ambiguity about risk. The empirical findings revealed that perceived risk was positively associated with exposure levels and also related individuating factors, in particular smoking habits and one?s current health status. Further evidence was found that the variance of the perceived risk distribution is non-zero. In all, the three essays contribute methodological approaches and provide empirical examples for developing empirical models and estimating value of risk reductions in environment and human health, given the assumption about the individual?s perceptions of risk, and accordingly, the reasonable specifications of risks involved in the models.Item Gender differences in risk-taking behavior: from family of origin to personality variables(Texas Tech University, 1998-05) Marquis, Anne-MarieGender differences in risk-taking behavior are reported frequenth in the more current risk-taking literature. The purpose of this study was to create a link between the powercontrol theory's explanation of gender differences in risk-taking (Grasmick, Hagan, Blackwell, & Ameklev, 1996; Hagan, Simpson, & Gillis, 1985, 1987, 1988) in the sociological literature with the theory that Sorrentino, Hewitt, and Raso-Knott (1992) have espoused, i.e., that an individual differences variable, uncertainty orientation, is strongly correlated with gender differences in risk-taking. Because the first theory is based mostly on delinquent risky behavior and the second theory is based on risk-taking in chance situations (a risky choice task), measures of both were administered to 118 male and 146 female undergraduate university students enrolled at Texas Tech University. Other measures administered included the following: Amett's Risky Behavior Scale (RBS; 1994), which includes items related to delinquency (mentioned above), reckless driving, substance abuse, and risky sexual behavior; the Amett Inventory of Sensation Seeking (AISS; Amett, 1994); the short form of the Personal Attributes Questionnaire (PAQ; Spence & Helmreich, 1978); the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1979); and both the projective measure for assessing uncertainty orientation and the adaptation of the Byme and Lam berth (1971) acquiescence-free measure of authoritarianism to assess certainty orientation (Sorrentino, Hewitt et al., 1992). In addition, the same information collected by Grasmick et al. (1996) to test power-control theory also was collected. These questions related to parental occupational patriarchy; parental attitudinal patriarchy; intensity of childhood parental control; and risk preferences. These measures would serve to link this study to existing literature related to gender differences in risk-taking behavior. Results found both consistencies and inconsistencies with previous research. Congruencies with previous studies were: males preferred higher levels of risk than females on the risky choice task and the RBS, and higher levels of sensation seeking on the AISS. Factor analysis of the RBS yielded four discrete types of risky behavior (risky sexual behavior, reckless driving, delinquency, substance abuse). Males reported engaging in significantly more reckless driving and delinquent behavior. Gender differences were not statistically significant for risky sexual behavior or substance abuse. Family of origin predicted risky preferences for women. The specific relationship between lower patemal control and an increase in women's risky preferences was replicated. Furthermore, a replication of the correlation between variables related to an egalitarian family of origin and increase in women's delinquent behavior was obtained. Overall, the power-control theory did well to predict delinquency in both genders. Correlations between uncertainty orientation and some types of risky behaviors (delinquent behavior, substance abuse, and risky preferences) were found for women, but not for men. Data from the present study yielded no significant relationship between need for uncertainty and risk choice on the probability pairings task, though gender alone influenced behavior in this game as males preferred higher levels of risk than females. Additional findings and implications for future research are discussed.Item Households? Evacuation Decision in Response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita(2014-08-07) Huang, Shih-KaiAlthough evacuation has been recognized as an effective protective action in responding to a hurricane emergency, it is still not clear why some people leave but others do not. In order to better understand this issue, this study began with a statistical meta-analysis (SMA), which is a procedure that has never been conducted previously in the field of disaster studies. The SMA indicates that homeownership, official warning, risk area, seeing peers evacuating, expected hydrological impacts, and expected wind impacts have strong and consistent effects on evacuation decisions whereas female gender, black ethnicity, presence of children in the home, reliance on news media for storm information, reliance on peers for storm information, and hurricane intensity have weaker effects that might be due to mediation through psychological variables. Next, this study collected data from the Hurricane Katrina and Rita evacuations and extended the results of the SMA by testing the Huang et al. (2012) abbreviated protective action decision model (PADM). The results show that (1) a household?s evacuation decision, as predicted, is determined most directly by expected wind impacts and expected evacuation impediments. In turn, expected wind impacts and expected hydrological impacts are primarily determined by expected storm threat and expected rapid onset. Finally, expected storm threat, expected rapid onset, and expected evacuation impediments are determined by households? personal characteristics, their reception of hurricane information, and their observations of social and environmental cues. (2) Surprisingly, expected hydrological impacts did not have as much of an impact on evacuation decisions as wind impacts?which are associated with expected injuries, job disruption, and service disruption. (3) Official warnings and risk area also had direct effects on households? evacuation decisions, which can be explained as the peripheral route to persuasion that bypasses messages about the personal impacts hurricane impact (Petty & Cacioppo, 1986). (4) Unlike other hurricane evacuation studies, this one found that expected rapid onset had a significant effect on households? evacuation decisions, perhaps because both Hurricanes Katrina and Rita had late-changing tracks that might have caused residents to be concerned being caught on the road by a rapidly approaching storm. (5) Supplemental information, such as environmental cues, risk area, and hurricane experience, have effects on individuals? expectations of storm threat, wind impacts, and hydrological impacts that are similar to those of National Weather Service information that is disseminated through multiple information channels (e.g., news media and official warnings). This implies that households used other sources to place the National Weather Service?s hurricane information into an appropriate context. Nonetheless, some of the results conflict with the model presented by Huang et al. (2012), so further research is needed to determine whether the conflicting results can be replicated and, consequently, require revision of the model.Item Risk perception and the value of safety for low probability, high consequence risks: theoretical and empirical investigation(Texas Tech University, 2000-05) Ozdemir, OzlemThe purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between individuals' risk perceptions and their willingness-to-pay for increased safety in low-probability, high consequence risk situations. In order to explore this relationship, we first review some previous theoretical models on individual decision making in risky situations, specifically for low-probability, high-consequence risks. Although standard economic theories have built a substantial framework to explain behavioral responses to risks, they are not fully adequate to describe people's decisions under some uncertain and risky situations, particularly for low-probability events (Camerer and Kunreuther, 1989). Therefore, empirical investigations become crucial. Consistent with McClelland, Shulze, and Coursey (1993), we believe that field and lab studies provide complementary information for low-probability risks.Item Understanding the factors that influence women's decisions to use hormone replacement therapy during menopause using the Theory of Planned Behavior(2002-08) Adamus, Andrea Taylor; Shepherd, Marvin D.The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that influence women's decisions to use hormone replacement therapy (HRT) during menopause. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior and constructs of risk perception, this study was able to explore the beliefs and attitudes of women about HRT use during menopause. The study was also able to explore how risk perception of HRT and the conditions that affect women during midlife impact their decision to use HRT during that time. Focus groups were conducted to develop the questionnaire used in the larger study. A community-based sample of women from Houston area churches participated in the study. The major theme that emerged from the focus groups was the weighing of cancer risks and the protection benefits of HRT. The most interesting factor that emerged as a barrier to HRT use was "negative publicity" and myths toward taking HRT. Results from the larger study demonstrated that the construct of attitude was the predominate predictor of intention when direct measures were used in a model to predict intention. Meaning that women's attitudes towards HRT use during menopause (whether they are safe, wise to use, good or bad, beneficial, risky, pleasant, or valuable) played a significant role in their intention. In contrast when the belief-based measures were used in the model, subjective norm and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of intention. Meaning that the intention to use HRT was based more on the influence of their husbands, physicians, and families. This also meant that the dosage form, cost, negative publicity, family history of cancer, personal fear of developing cancer, and education about HRT would affect their intention to use HRT during menopause more than the advantages and disadvantages of using HRT (advantages such as protection from osteoporosis, relief from hot flashes; or, disadvantages such as risk of breast cancer). Finally, women's perception of risk with regards to HRT was highest for breast cancer followed by heart disease, endometrial cancer, and osteoporosis. This study found that there are many factors that may affect the decision to use HRT during menopause and that overall these factors affect women’s attitudes towards HRT and their intention to use it.