Browsing by Subject "Production"
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Item A general method for the selection of an optimum choke management strategy(2015-12) Karantinos, Emmanouil; Sharma, Mukul M.; Lake, Larry WDifferent choke management strategies have been adopted by operators in the field. However, no general method exists for systematically selecting an optimum choke management strategy. In this study, we propose a general method for the selection of bean-up duration and bean-up strategy (choke management), that will maximize well productivity by minimizing formation damage, reducing sand production and reducing the impact of multiphase flow effects. Strategies of stepwise bottom-hole pressure (BHP) adjustments are compared using the principle of superposition and the analytical solution of the diffusivity equation for vertical wells operating under different choke settings. The optimum choke management strategy is based on the anticipated formation damage mechanisms. For example, if fines migration and sand production are a concern, then minimizing the near wellbore pressure gradients is the primary criterion for the selection of the optimum choke management strategy. Results indicate that the selection of the optimum strategy (sequence of choke settings) is independent of the drawdown and depends primarily on the duration of the ramp-up period. Among the 251 strategies evaluated, three of them consistently appear to be the optimum. We further refine strategies using a single parameter, incorporated in a dimensionless expression of BHP as a function of time. From simulation results, we conclude that for relatively short bean-up durations (i.e., infinite acting behavior), the pressure gradient reduction at the wellbore varies logarithmically with time. Choke management strategies appear to have similar performance as far as no more than 70% of the drawdown is applied during the initial 20% of the overall bean-up duration. For longer durations (i.e., when the presence of the no-flow boundary is felt), the optimum strategy depends on both reservoir properties and radial extent. For the case of square drainage area, a plot suggesting the optimum strategy with respect to dimensionless duration is presented. Positive skin and multiphase flow near the wellbore, negatively affect the performance of bean-up strategies. For vertical wells producing from multiple layers, bean-up strategies should be selected with respect to the effective horizontal permeability, ultimately yielding the greatest pressure gradient reduction in the low permeability zones. The proposed method enables engineers to select the optimum choke management strategy with respect to bean-up duration and formation properties. The duration of the bean-up process is drawdown dependent thus further research is encouraged in determining the maximum allowable pressure gradient in order to curtail sand production.Item An Evaluation of Completion Parameters and Well Performance in the Montney Formation in British Columbia, Canada(2013-11-21) Sadeghi, SiminThe objectives of this study are to quantify the influence of individual completion parameters on the production in complex shale/tight gas formations and to predict production from large completion datasets of public domain information without having in-depth reservoir characterization. Shale gas has become an increasingly significant source of energy in the last decade especially in the U.S. and Canada. Improving completion technologies in long horizontal wells makes these plays one of the most attractive investment opportunities in oil and gas industry. The Montney is one of largest shale gas plays in Canada covering a large area in northeast British Columbia and Alberta. Advanced horizontal drilling technology makes unconventional resources economically viable in the Montney formation, which now has a production rate of 1.5 Bcf/day. Well quality, well costs and the provincial government royalty programs vary throughout the play. In addition, various operators are attempting a variety of horizontal leg lengths and completion techniques. All these variables, in combination, create difficulty in adequately comparing economic outcomes in different areas. In this research, more than 430 completion reports of horizontal wells in British Columbia have been reviewed. Multivariate regression analysis has been applied to study correlations between production rate indicators (Initial Production, EUR) and completion attributes (Lateral length, number of fracture stages, number of perforation clusters, fracture fluid). Using regression analysis on completion parameters and best average 12 consecutive months of production showed that number of fracture stages and perforation clusters have the most impact on the well performance. More fracture sand results in more production, but a large amount of uncertainty exists. Fluid and lateral length do not have a strong positive correlation with production rate. Applying regression analysis, the best model for predicting production rate was selected and used in an economic analysis performed using Value Navigator software to calculate and map net present value and rate of return maps. Our goal is to present a solution technique to help optimize completions in complex shale reservoirs. Since many undrilled locations remain, completion optimization has significant value.Item Automated estimation of time and cost for determining optimal machining plans(2012-05) Van Blarigan, Benjamin; Campbell, Matthew I.; Li, WeiThe process of taking a solid model and producing a machined part requires the time and skillset of a range of professionals, and several hours of part review, process planning, and production. Much of this time is spent creating a methodical step-by-step process plan for creating the part from stock. The work presented here is part of a software package that performs automated process planning for a solid model. This software is capable of not only greatly decreasing the planning time for part production, but also give valuable feedback about the part to the designer, as a time and cost associated with manufacturing the part. In order to generate these parameters, we must simulate all aspects of creating the part. Presented here are models that replicate these aspects. For milling, an automatic tool selection method is presented. Given this tooling, another model uses specific information about the part to generate a tool path length. A machining simulation model calculates relevant parameters, and estimates a time for machining given the tool and tool path determined previously. This time value, along with the machining parameters, is used to estimate the wear to the tooling used in the process. Using the machining time and the tool wear a cost for the process can be determined. Other models capture the time of non-machining production times, and all times are combined with billing rates of machines and operators to present an overall cost for machining a feature on a part. If several such features are required to create the part, these models are applied to each feature, until a complete process plan has been created. Further post processing of the process plan is required. Using a list of available machines, this work considers creating the part on all machines, or any combination of these machines. Candidates for creating the part on specific machines are generated and filtered based on time and cost to keep only the best candidates. These candidates can be returned to the user, who can evaluate, and choose, one candidate. Results are presented for several example parts.Item BIM Principles to Practice: Using BIM to Create a New Model for Producing Animation(2012-02-14) Naugle, Nicholas D.Computer animation projects, specifically feature film productions, require large teams of artists to manage and coordinate the use of enormous amounts of data containing both aesthetic and technical information within a specific time frame and while using finite resources. Mismanagement through information loss or inefficiency can result in both a compromised artistic vision and a financial loss. This thesis presents the conceptualization of a work management system based upon a successful system used in architecture and construction called Building Information Modeling, or BIM. BIM principles are adapted for use in animation production through the use of images as containers of information. The thesis does not include implementation of the management system described but does predict, based upon comparisons with architecture and construction, that a significant level of information carry-through can be achieved from concept art to final frames and we expect a positive gains in the efficient use of production resources. Adoption of this proposed project management structure could reduce production budgets, improve the communication flow between directors and artists, and develop an empirical based record for predicting the resource usage requirements for proposed projects in the future.Item Cultural capital : production and reproduction in Emaré(2012-08) Bristol, Abigail R.; Scala, Elizabeth, 1966-; Lesser, WayneUsing the central romance narrative object in the Breton Lay Emaré, the anonymous poet creates a conversation highlighting the importance of class structure, religious difference, chivalric duty, the generic traditions of romance, imperial wealth, desire, and power within the narrative. The protagonist, Emaré, serves as the focus for a version of the traditional calumniated wife narrative, with few distinctions, the most intriguing of which is the focus on the particular textile that identifies her. This paper investigates how the textile and Emaré herself demonstrate the importance of production and reproduction—the fruits of both kinds of labor enabling her son to inherit two empires and their associated capitalist wealth, a social value that the likely middle class audience would have admired. This combined both the traditional dynastic focus of romance narratives with a capitalist, mercantile one, suggesting a move away from a chivalric, martial culture to one based around economic production.Item Detection of production-induced time-lapse signatures by geophysical (seismic and CSEM) measurements(2011-05) Shahin, Alireza; Tatham, R. H. (Robert H.), 1943-; Stoffa, Paul L., 1948-; Sen, Mrinal; Goff, John; Smith, BrackinWhile geophysical reservoir characterization has been an area of research for the last three decades, geophysical reservoir monitoring, time-lapse studies, have recently become an important geophysical application. Generally speaking, the main target is to detect, estimate, and discriminate the changes in subsurface rock properties due to production. This research develops various sensitivity and feasibility analyses to investigate the effects of production-induced time-lapse changes on geophysical measurements including seismic and controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) data. For doing so, a realistic reservoir model is numerically simulated based on a prograding near-shore sandstone reservoir. To account for the spatial distribution of petrophysical properties, an effective porosity model is first simulated by Gaussian geostatistics. Dispersed clay and dual water models are then efficiently combined with other well-known theoretical and experimental petrophysical correlations to consistently simulate reservoir model parameters. Next, the constructed reservoir model is subjected to numerical simulation of multi-phase fluid flow to replicate a waterflooding scenario of a black oil reservoir and to predict the spatial distributions of fluid pressure and saturation. A modified Archie’s equation for shaly sandstones is utilized to simulate rock resistivity. Finally, a geologically consistent stress-sensitive rock physics model, combined with the modified Gassmann theory for shaly sandstones, is utilized to simulate seismic elastic parameters. As a result, the comprehensive petro-electro-elastic model developed in this dissertation can be efficiently utilized in sensitivity and feasibility analyses of seismic/CSEM data with respect to petrophysical properties and, ultimately, applied to reservoir characterization and monitoring research. Using the resistivity models, a base and two monitor time-lapse CSEM surveys are simulated via accurate numerical algorithms. 2.5D CSEM modeling demonstrates that a detectable time-lapse signal after 5 years and a strong time-lapse signal after 10 years of waterflooding are attainable with the careful application of currently available CSEM technology. To simulate seismic waves, I employ different seismic modeling algorithms, one-dimensional (1D) acoustic and elastic ray tracing, 1D full elastic reflectivity, 2D split-step Fourier plane-wave (SFPW), and 2D stagger grid explicit finite difference (FD). My analyses demonstrate that acoustic modeling of an elastic medium is a good approximation up to ray parameter (p) equal to 0.2 sec/km. However, at p=0.3 sec/km, differences between elastic and acoustic wave propagation is the more dominant effect compared to internal multiples. Here, converted waves are also generated with significant amplitudes compared to primaries and internal multiples. I also show that time-lapse modeling of the reservoir using SFPW approach is very fast compared to FD, 100 times faster for my case here. It is capable of handling higher frequencies than FD. It provides an accurate image of the waterflooding process comparable to FD. Consequently, it is a powerful alternative for time-lapse seismic modeling. I conclude that both seismic and CSEM data have adequate but different sensitivities to changes in reservoir properties and therefore have the potential to quantitatively map production-induced time-lapse changes.Item Eleanor and the egg(2015-05) Ota, Kelly Mie; Shea, Andrew Brendan; McCreery, Cindy; Carter, MiaThis report summarizes the script development, pre-production, production and post-production of the making of the short narrative film Eleanor and the Egg. This film was produced as my graduate thesis film in the department of Radio-Television-Film at the University of Texas at Austin in partial fulfillment of a Master of Fine Arts in Film Production.Item Essays on energy economics : markets, investment and production(2013-12) Morovati Sharifabadi, Mohammad; Titman, SheridanMy dissertation consists of three distinct but related chapters on Energy Economics and Finance. My first chapter is an empirical evaluation of market conduct in global crude oil markets. "Hotelling rule" states that even in competitive equilibrium, price of an "exhaustible resource" exceeds its marginal cost due to the opportunity cost of depleting the non-renewable resource. This cost is called "scarcity rent". Oil price exceeds its marginal extraction cost significantly. This can be attributed to two different sources: effect of scarcity of oil on prices or exercising market power by OPEC (collusion). In this paper, I use Porter (1983) approach considering the possibility of "scarcity rent" component involved in the gap between price and marginal extraction cost in the oil market. The novelty of my approach is to empirically estimate scarcity rent using data on cost of production of oil. Two benchmark cases, where scarcity rent is either zero (non-exhaustible resources hypothesis (Adelman 1990)) or equal to minimum price-cost margin are considered. The results show that in both cases OPEC failed to cooperate effectively and in second case, market conduct estimated is closer to Cournot behavior. In the second chapter of my dissertation, we employ a real options approach to evaluate oil and gas companies' investment decisions in an empirical setup. We develop a theoretical model to derive testable predictions. A unique measure of investment costs is obtained from energy industry data vendors. This novel dataset contains details of contract terms and pricing for offshore drilling equipment, which constitute the major share of investment costs in offshore oil field development. The investment database is combined with financial and macroeconomic data, which enables us to perform a panel data analysis of investments' response to variations in investment costs and market variables such as the slope of futures curve, firms' past earnings, cost of capital and implied oil price volatility. Our results show that the larger firms, facing less financial friction, are more forward looking while the smaller firms, who have less access to capital markets, are more dependent on their past earnings. The third chapter of my dissertation is about the effect of recent natural gas production boom on U.S. manufacturing. Natural gas production in North America has increased significantly over the past decade causing the prices to plunge during past 5 years. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of low natural gas prices on energy intensive U.S. manufacturing industries using market data. I empirically evaluate the stock market reactions of publicly traded companies in energy intensive industries to arrival of new information about the unexpected price shocks in natural gas futures markets. My results show that the stock market does not react significantly to innovations in the expected price of natural gas, proxied for by monthly changes in natural gas futures contracts with a fixed maturity date. I then split the sample into two groups based on their expenditure on natural gas as a ratio of their total production value. The stock market valuation of companies in high "natural gas intensity" industries were positively affected by unexpected downward shocks in natural gas prices and the results are significant.Item Estimating production and cost for clamshell mechanical dredges(Texas A&M University, 2005-02-17) Adair, Robert FletcherClamshell dredges are used around the United States for both navigational and environmental dredging projects. Clamshell dredges are extremely mobile and can excavate sediment over a wide range of depths. The object of this thesis is to develop a methodology for production and cost estimation for clamshell dredge projects. There are current methods of predicting clamshell dredge production which rely on production curves and constant cycle times. This thesis calculates production estimation by predicting cycle time which is the time required to complete one dredge cycle. By varying the cycle time according to site characteristics production can be predicted. A second important component to predicting clamshell dredge production is bucket fill factor. This is the percent of the bucket that will fill with sediment depending on the type of soil being excavated. Using cycle time as the basis for production calculation a spreadsheet has been created to simplify the calculation of production and project cost. The production calculation also factors in soil type and region of the United States. The spreadsheet is capable of operating with basic site characteristics, or with details about the dredge, bucket size, and region. Once the production is calculated the project cost can be determined. First the project length is found by dividing the total amount of sediment that is to be excavated by the production rate. Once the project length is calculated the remainder of the project cost can be found. The methods discussed in this thesis were used to calculate project cost for 5 different projects. The results were then compared to estimates by the government and the actual cost of the project. The government estimates were an average of 39% higher than the actual project cost. The method discussed in this thesis was only 6% higher than the actual cost.Item An experimental approach to phonetic transfer in the production and perception of early Spanish-Catalan bilinguals(2013-05) Amengual Watson, Marcos; Toribio, Almeida Jacqueline, 1963-; Bullock, Barbara E.This dissertation examines the production, perception and processing of the Catalan-specific mid-vowel categories (/e/-/[open-mid front unrounded vowel]/ and /o/-/[open-mid back rounded vowel]/) by early Spanish-Catalan bilinguals in Majorca (Spain). The analyses focus on the lexical as well as the segmental levels to analyze cognate effects in the production and lexical representations of these early bilinguals, and they explore how their production and perception abilities are related. This study provides evidence that early and highly proficient Spanish-Catalan bilinguals in Majorca maintain two independent phonetic categories in the Catalan mid-vowel space. The first significant finding is that production patterns in Majorca differ from those previously reported in Barcelona, as the Catalan mid-vowel contrasts are not merging into a single Spanish-like mid-vowel for either Catalan-dominants or Spanish-dominants. Additionally, these bilinguals are not 'deaf' to the Catalan-specific mid-vowel contrasts: both language dominance groups perceive the contrast between the Catalan mid-vowel categories despite the overlap with one phonetic category in Spanish. Even though Spanish-dominant bilinguals as a whole are indistinguishable from Catalan-dominant bilinguals in the perception and production tasks, they are found to have a higher error rate in the lexical decision task. The comparison of the acoustic properties of the target vowels in Catalan cognate and non-cognate experimental items reveals that the production of the mid-vowels is affected by cognate status, and that these cognate effects are also found in the word recognition of aurally presented stimuli. Finally, bilinguals who produced the mid-vowels with a smaller Euclidean distance are more likely than bilinguals who maintain a more robust contrast in their productions to have a higher error rate in the AXB discrimination and lexical decision tasks. The present study contributes to the discussion regarding the organization of early bilinguals' dominant and non-dominant phonetic systems, and implications are considered for cross-linguistic models of bilingual speech production and perception. It is proposed that the exemplar model of lexical representation (Bybee, 2001; Pierrehumbert, 2001) can be extended to include bilingual lexical connections that can account for the interactions between the phonetic and lexical levels of early bilingual individuals.Item Lofty : a culminating cinematic experiment(2013-05) Smith, Patrick William, active 2013; Raval, P. J. (Paul James)The following report is an in depth, step-by-step analysis of the processes and experiments undertaken during the creation of the thesis film, "Lofty," written, directed, photographed, scored, and edited by Patrick William Smith. From inception to mastering the finished film, this report serves to highlight the filmmaker's rationale behind attempts at various experimental methods of pre-production, production, and post-production on the film.Item Multi-frac treatments in tight oil and shale gas reservoirs : effect of hydraulic fracture geometry on production and rate transient(2013-05) Khan, Abdul Muqtadir; Olson, Jon E.The vast shale gas and tight oil reservoirs in North America cannot be economically developed without multi-stage hydraulic fracture treatments. Owing to the disparity in the density of natural fractures in addition to the disparate in-situ stress conditions in these kinds of formations, microseismic fracture mapping has shown that hydraulic fracture treatments develop a range of large-scale fracture networks in the shale plays. In this thesis, an approach is presented, where the fracture networks approximated with microseismic mapping are integrated with a commercial numerical production simulator that discretely models the network structure in both vertical and horizontal wells. A novel approach for reservoir simulation is used, where porosity (instead of permeability) is used as a scaling parameter for the fracture width. Two different fracture geometries have been broadly proposed for a multi stage horizontal well, orthogonal and transverse. The orthogonal pattern represents a complex network with cross cutting fractures orthogonal to each other; whereas transverse pattern maps uninterrupted fractures achieving maximum depth of penetration into the reservoir. The response for a vii single-stage fracture is further investigated by comparing the propagation of the stage to be dendritic versus planar. A dendritic propagation is bifurcation of the hydraulic fracture due to intersection with the natural fracture (failure along the plane of weakness). The impact of fracture spacing to optimize these fracture geometries is studied. A systematic optimization for designing the fracture length and width is also presented. The simulation is motivated by the oil window of Eagle Ford shale formation and the results of this work illustrate how different fracture network geometries impact well performance, which is critical for improving future horizontal well completions and fracturing strategies in low permeability shale and tight oil reservoirs. A rate transient analysis (RTA) technique employing a rate normalized pressure (RNP) vs. superposition time function (STF) plot is used for the linear flow analysis. The parameters that influence linear flow are analytically derived. It is found that picking a straight line on this curve can lead to erroneous results because multiple solutions exist. A new technique for linear flow analysis is used. The ratio of derivative of inverse production and derivative of square root time is plotted against square root time and the constant derivative region is seen to be indicative of linear flow. The analysis is found to be robust because different simulation cases are modeled and permeability and fracture half-length are estimated.Item Orbit(2011-05) Dorfman, Jessica Rose; Howard, Donald Wayne; Radtke, Ed; Shea, Andrew; Lewis, Richard; Staiger, JanetThis report summarizes the pre-production, production, and post-production stages for the making of my short film, Orbit. This short was produced as my Graduate Thesis film in the Department of Radio-Television-Film at the University of Texas in partial fulfillment of my MFA degree in Film Production.Item Prediction of gas-hydrate formation conditions in production and surface facilities(Texas A&M University, 2006-10-30) Ameripour, ShararehGas hydrates are a well-known problem in the oil and gas industry and cost millions of dollars in production and transmission pipelines. To prevent this problem, it is important to predict the temperature and pressure under which gas hydrates will form. Of the thermodynamic models in the literature, only a couple can predict the hydrate-formation temperature or pressure for complex systems including inhibitors. I developed two simple correlations for calculating the hydrate-formation pressure or temperature for single components or gas mixtures. These correlations are based on over 1,100 published data points of gas-hydrate formation temperatures and pressures with and without inhibitors. The data include samples ranging from pure-hydrate formers such as methane, ethane, propane, carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide to binary, ternary, and natural gas mixtures. I used the Statistical Analysis Software (SAS) to find the best correlations among variables such as specific gravity and pseudoreduced pressure and temperature of gas mixtures, vapor pressure and liquid viscosity of water, and concentrations of electrolytes and thermodynamic inhibitors. These correlations are applicable to temperatures up to 90????F and pressures up to 12,000 psi. I tested the capability of the correlations for aqueous solutions containing electrolytes such as sodium, potassium, and calcium chlorides less than 20 wt% and inhibitors such as methanol less than 20 wt%, ethylene glycol, triethylene glycol, and glycerol less than 40 wt%. The results show an average absolute percentage deviation of 15.93 in pressure and an average absolute temperature difference of 2.97????F. Portability and simplicity are other advantages of these correlations since they are applicable even with a simple calculator. The results are in excellent agreement with the experimental data in most cases and even better than the results from commercial simulators in some cases. These correlations provide guidelines to help users forecast gas-hydrate forming conditions for most systems of hydrate formers with and without inhibitors and to design remediation schemes such as: ???? Increasing the operating temperature by insulating the pipelines or applying heat. ???? Decreasing the operating pressure when possible. ???? Adding a required amount of appropriate inhibitor to reduce the hydrateformation temperature and/or increase the hydrate-formation pressure.Item Probabilistic Performance Forecasting for Unconventional Reservoirs With Stretched-Exponential Model(2011-08-08) Can, BunyaminReserves estimation in an unconventional-reservoir setting is a daunting task because of geologic uncertainty and complex flow patterns evolving in a long-stimulated horizontal well, among other variables. To tackle this complex problem, we present a reserves-evaluation workflow that couples the traditional decline-curve analysis with a probabilistic forecasting frame. The stretched-exponential production decline model (SEPD) underpins the production behavior. Our recovery appraisal workflow has two different applications: forecasting probabilistic future performance of wells that have production history; and forecasting production from new wells without production data. For the new field case, numerical model runs are made in accord with the statistical design of experiments for a range of design variables pertinent to the field of interest. In contrast, for the producing wells the early-time data often need adjustments owing to restimulation, installation of artificial-lift, etc. to focus on the decline trend. Thereafter, production data of either new or existing wells are grouped in accord with initial rates to obtain common SEPD parameters for similar wells. After determining the distribution of model parameters using well grouping, the methodology establishes a probabilistic forecast for individual wells. We present a probabilistic performance forecasting methodology in unconventional reservoirs for wells with and without production history. Unlike other probabilistic forecasting tools, grouping wells with similar production character allows estimation of self-consistent SEPD parameters and alleviates the burden of having to define uncertainties associated with reservoir and well-completion parameters.Item Production functions and plant size in U.S. manufacturing industries: an empirical study(Texas Tech University, 1976-05) Slaieh, Aziz N.Recently, economic analysis based on empirical evidence from estimates of production functions pertaining to the U.S. manufacturing sector has gained considerable momentum. Research in this area has passed through two main stages of development. The first began with the publication of the pioneering work by Cobb and Douglas in 1928 and ended in 1961. During this period, estimates of production functions in U.S. manufacturing industries were of the following three types: (1) for manufacturing as a whole fitted to time-series data; (2) for manufacturing as a whole fitted to cross-section data for the individual industries for the same year; and (3) for manufacturing as a whole fitted to data across the states (the individual state being the unit of observation) for the same year. During this period a limited number of investigations was conducted within this framework of empirical research. This is attributed to the lack of sufficiently disaggregated data for value added, labor and capital inputs. Data for estimation purposes was not available for individual establishments in the manufacturing sector but was aggregated by industry.Item Quantification of production recovery using probabilistic approach and semi-analytical model for unconventional oil reservoirs(2015-12) Choi, Bong Joon; Srinivasan, Sanjay; Sepehrnoori, Kamy, 1951-Decline curve analysis is widely applied for production forecasting in oil & gas industry. However, many models do not work for super-tight, unconventional wells with dominant fracture flows. Some novel decline models have been introduced for unconventional plays, but the transition time between the transient and pseudo-steady flow period is difficult to model with such pure empirical relations. Consequently, the decline projections are often inaccurate and furthermore, they are difficult to quantify the uncertainty associated with the predictions. To address these issues, a combined probabilistic approach is proposed that uses a dual-porosity semi-analytical decline model within an extended bootstrap framework in order to provide estimates for the P10, P50 and P90 production profiles. The probabilistic method employed in this research is a data-generative approach that employs modified bootstrap method to generate multiple decline model projections. The semi-analytical model is an approximate decline model that optimizes parameters describing flow in matrix-fracture systems using the observed production profile. In the proposed method, probabilistic approach and semi-analytical decline model are combined. The modified approach is compared to the performances developed with Arps’ hyperbolic model. Both models are fitted by optimizing respective parameters and 50 synthetic data sets are used to draw confidence interval projections. The probabilistic approach is extended by proposing alternate blocking techniques – variance of the mean and analysis of the variance (ANOVA), in place of a scheme based on the autocorrelation exhibited by the decline data, originally implemented by other researchers. The cumulative production and forecast period production errors are calculated for these alternative schemes. For all proposed applications, two unconventional, horizontal oil wells are used to test the results. Both these wells exhibit sharp decline in production rate in the first few months that is related to fracture flow regimes. The results show that the proposed application of semi-analytical model with probabilistic approach significantly improved the projections. The implementation of alternate blocking techniques also show improvement in confidence interval projections, The resultant uncertainty distributions are more accurate and precise than those obtained using the autocorrelation based schemes. The combined results show that ANOVA blocking technique outperformed the other two techniques.Item Rescue you : ghost chasing and filmmaking(2010-12) Hall, Kimberly Elaine; Stekler, Paul Jeffrey; Schiesari, Nancy; Garrison, Andy; Gopalan, LalithaThis report will summarize the process of writing, developing, directing and finishing the high-definition short film, Rescue You, This film was produced as my graduate thesis film in the Department of Radio-Television-Film at the University of Texas at Austin in partial fulfillment of my Master of Fine Arts in Film Production degree.Item Returning to Ananda(2013-12) Bernhardt, Deja; McCreery, CindyFrom the sprouting of the idea for the series to the final stages of post-production for Returning to Ananda, a one-hour, made for cable-television pilot, directed by Déjà Cresencia Bernhardt; this report details the pre-production to post-production phases of its development. Included in this report are the final screenplay and various other production notes.Item Running upside down(2011-12) Huang, Jou-Chia; Garrison, Andrew; Howard, Donald W.; Kearney, Mary C.; Knight, DanThe following report describes the making of the short film Running Upside Down in its entirety from the genesis of the idea to pre-production, production, post-production, and finally reflections and musings of the whole process. Running Upside Down is a story about a father and son’s journey to reconciliation though oceans apart and also of a young girl’s dream to travel to America. Supplemental materials to the report include the original script, budget and shooting schedule. This short film was produced as my Graduate Thesis Film in the Department of Radio-Television-Film at the University of Texas at Austin in fulfillment of my MFA in Film Production.