Browsing by Subject "Offsets"
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Item Potential contribution of a carbon offset scheme to the costs of greenhouse gas emissions reductions in developing countries(2012-12) Partridge, Ian Alexander; Gamkhar, Shama; Groat, Charles G.; Webber, Michael; Baldick, Ross; Rai, VarunThe energy sector in the developing world is expected to account for 27% of global emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion in 2035 – in 1990 it accounted for 7%. The increase is concentrated in rapidly growing countries in Asia that depend on coal for power generation. Maximizing electricity generation using renewable technologies in these countries provides an obvious approach to slowing global emissions growth. A barrier to increased use of renewable generation is cost: financial incentives could help to increase its use in developing countries. The principal objective of this research is to examine the practicability and potential scale of an offset scheme aimed at providing this incentive. Offset schemes have a poor reputation due to problems experienced with the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). I identify the CDM’s failure to ensure the additionality of projects as a key issue and propose an approach to the assessment of additionality specific to grid connected generation projects. I present case studies of wind and small hydro projects in China and India in which I calculate the marginal abatement cost of emissions cuts and use the new approach to additionality to draw conclusions regarding the eligibility of projects to receive offsets in some hypothetical future scheme. My analysis shows that the proposed approach offers advantages over methodologies permitted by the CDM. I analyze the supply and demand for credits from existing schemes during 2013-2020 and show that oversupply will continue to impact their price, removing any incentive for investment in renewable generation. Using an original approach based on IEA forecasts for the energy sector, I estimate the maximum availability of offsets from a post-2020 scheme based on renewable generation, and assess the potential global demand.Item The Impact of Biofuel and Greenhouse Gas Policies on Land Management, Agricultural Production, and Environmental Quality(2012-10-19) Baker, Justin ScottThis dissertation explores the combined effects of biofuel mandates and terrestrial greenhouse gas GHG mitigation incentives on land use, management intensity, commodity markets, welfare, and the full costs of GHG abatement through conceptual and empirical modeling. First, a simple conceptual model of land allocation and management is used to illustrate how bioenergy policies and GHG mitigation incentives could influence market prices, shift the land supply between alternative uses, alter management intensity, and boost equilibrium commodity prices. Later a major empirical modeling section uses the U.S. Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) to simulate land use and production responses to various biofuel and climate policy scenarios. Simulations are performed to assess the effects of imposing biofuel mandates in the U.S. consistent with the Renewable Fuels Standard of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (RFS2). Simulations are run for several climate mitigation policy scenarios (with varying GHG (CO2) prices and eligibility restrictions for GHG offset activities) with and without conservation land recultivation. Important simulation outputs include time trajectories for land use, GHG emissions and mitigation, commodity prices, production, net exports, sectoral economic welfare, and shifts in management practices and intensity. Direct and indirect consequences of RFS2 and carbon policy are highlighted, including regional production shifts that can influence water consumption and nutrient use in regions already plagued by water scarcity and quality concerns. Results suggest that the potential magnitude of climate mitigation on commodity markets and exports is substantially higher than under biofuel expansion in isolation, raising concerns of international leakage and stimulating the ?Food vs. Carbon? debate. Finally, a reduced-form dynamic emissions trading model of the U.S. economy is developed using simulation output from FASOMGHG and the National Energy Modeling System to test the effect of biofuel mandate expansion and domestic offset eligibility restrictions on total economy-wide GHG abatement costs. Findings are that while the RFS2 raises the marginal costs of offsets, full abatement costs depend on a number of policy factors. GHG payment incentives for forest management and non-CO2 agricultural offsets can increase full abatement costs by more than 20%.