Browsing by Subject "Nuclear Nonproliferation"
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Dynamic Agent Based Modeling Using Bayesian Framework for Addressing Intelligence Adaptive Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis(2014-10-03) Elmore, Royal ARealistically, no two nuclear proliferating or defensive entities are exactly identical; Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is a computational methodology addressing the uniqueness of those facilitating or preventing nuclear proliferation. The modular Bayesian ABM Nonproliferation Enterprise (BANE) tool has been developed at Texas A &M University for nuclear nonproliferation analysis. Entities engaged in nuclear proliferation cover a range of activities and fall within proliferating, defensive, and neutral agent classes. In BANE proliferating agents pursue nuclear weapons, or at least a latent nuclear weapons capability. Defensive nonproliferation agents seek to uncover, hinder, reverse, or dismantle any proliferation networks they discover. The vast majority of agents are neutral agents, of which only a small subset can significantly enable proliferation. BANE facilitates intelligent agent actions by employing entropy and mutual information for proliferation pathway determinations. Factors including technical success, resource expenditures, and detection probabilities are assessed by agents seeking optimal proliferation postures. Coupling ABM with Bayesian analysis is powerful from an omniscience limitation perspective. Bayesian analysis supports linking crucial knowledge and technology requirements into relationship networks for each proliferation category. With a Bayesian network, gaining information on proliferator actions in one category informs defensive agents where to expend limited counter-proliferation impeding capabilities. Correlating incomplete evidence for pattern recognition in BANE using Bayesian inference draws upon technical supply side proliferation linkages grounded in physics. Potential or current proliferator security, economic trajectory, or other factors modify demand drivers for undertaking proliferation. Using Bayesian inference the coupled demand and supply proliferation drivers are connected to create feedback interactions. Verification and some validation for BANE is performed using scenarios and historical case studies. Restrictive export controls, swings in global soft power affinity, and past proliferation program assessments for entities ranging from the Soviet Union to Iraq demonstrates BANE?s flexibility and applicability. As a newly developed tool, BANE has room for future contributions from computer science, engineering, and social scientists. Through BANE the framework exists for detailed nonproliferation expansion into broader weapons of mass effect analysis; since, nuclear proliferation is but one option for addressing international security concerns.Item New Tool for Proliferation Resistance Evaluation Applied to Uranium and Thorium Fueled Fast Reactor Fuel Cycles(2010-07-14) Metcalf, Richard R.The comparison of nuclear facilities based on their barriers to nuclear material proliferation has remained a difficult endeavor, often requiring expert elicitation for each system under consideration. However, objectively comparing systems using a set of computable metrics to derive a single number representing a system is not, in essence, a nuclear nonproliferation specific problem and significant research has been performed for business models. For instance, Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MAUA) methods have been used previously to provide an objective insight of the barriers to proliferation. In this paper, the Proliferation Resistance Analysis and Evaluation Tool for Observed Risk (PRAETOR), a multi-tiered analysis tool based on the multiplicative MAUA method, is presented. It folds sixty three mostly independent metrics over three levels of detail to give an ultimate metric for nonproliferation performance comparison. In order to reduce analysts' bias, the weighting between the various metrics was obtained by surveying a total of thirty three nonproliferation specialists and nonspecialists from fields such as particle physics, international policy, and industrial engineering. The PRAETOR was used to evaluate the Fast Breeder Reactor Fuel Cycle (FBRFC). The results obtained using these weights are compared against a uniform weight approach. Results are presented for five nuclear material diversion scenarios: four examples include a diversion attempt on various components of a PUREX fast reactor cycle and one scenario involves theft from a PUREX facility in a LWR cycle. The FBRFC was evaluated with uranium-plutonium fuel and a second time using thorium-uranium fuel. These diversion scenarios were tested with both uniform and expert weights, with and without safeguards in place. The numerical results corroborate nonproliferation truths and provide insight regarding fast reactor facilities' proliferation resistance in relation to known standards.