Browsing by Subject "Madden-Julian Oscillation"
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Item Caribbean Precipitation in Observations and IPCC AR4 Models(2012-10-19) Martin, Elinor RuthA census of 24 coupled (CMIP) and 13 uncoupled (AMIP) models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4) were compared with observations and reanalysis to show varied ability of the models to simulate Caribbean precipitation and mechanisms related to precipitation in the region. Not only were errors seen in the annual mean, with CMIP models underestimating both rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) and AMIP models overestimating rainfall, the annual cycle was also incorrect. Large overestimates of precipitation at all SSTs (and particularly above 28 degrees C) and at vertical circulations less than -10 hPa/day (the deep convective regime) were inherent in the atmospheric models with models using spectral type convective parameterizations performing best. In coupled models, however, errors in the frequency of occurrence of SSTs (the distribution is cold biased) and deep convective vertical circulations (reduced frequency) lead to an underestimation of Caribbean mean precipitation. On daily timescales, the models were shown to produce too frequent light rainfall amounts (especially less than 1 mm/day) and dry extremes and too few heavy rainfall amounts and wet extremes. The simulation of the mid-summer drought (MSD) proved a challenge for the models, despite their ability to produce a Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) in the correct location. Errors in the CLLJ, such as too strong magnitude and weak semi-annual cycle, were worse in the CMIP models and were attributed to problems with the location and seasonal evolution of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in both CMIP and AMIP models. Despite these discrepancies between models and observations, the ability of the models to simulate the correlation between the CLLJ and precipitation varied based on season and region, with the connection with United States precipitation particularly problematic in the AMIP simulations. An observational study of intraseasonal precipitation in the Caribbean showed an explicit connection between the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and Caribbean precipitation for the first time. Precipitation anomalies up to 50 percent above (below) the annual mean are observed in phases 1 and 2 (5 and 6) of the MJO and are related to changes in the CLLJ, that is also modulated by the MJO. Considerable progress has been made on identifying both problems and successes in the simulation of Caribbean climate in general circulation models, but many areas still require investigation.Item Quality Control and Census of SMART-R Observations from the DYNAMO/CINDY2011 Field Campaign(2012-09-24) Fliegel, Jonathan 1988-The Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radar (SMART-R) is a truck-mounted C-band, Doppler radar that was deployed during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) / Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on interseasonal variability in the year 2011 (CINDY2011) campaign on Addu Atoll, Maldives. One of SMART-R?s objectives was to provide continuous volume scans of precipitating clouds during all phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) for the full duration of the campaign. Data from SMART-R is available for 2 October 2011 through 9 February 2012. Every 10 minutes a full volume scan was produced, which was subsequently run through quality control algorithms that, among other filters, performed a calibration correction, noise filtering, and an attenuation correction. It was observed that data from SMART-R appeared to be slanted towards the WNW, and after analysis, a 0.75? tilt correction was applied towards azimuth 285?. The data was then converted into Cartesian coordinates and an additional noise filter was applied. NETCDF files with radial velocities and corrected reflectivity were produced. From the reflectivity observations, a suite of products including rain maps, echo- top heights and convective/stratiform separations were produced. A modified version of the convective/stratiform separation was developed in an attempt to classify shallow and weak convection more correctly. The modified algorithm utilizes an isolation parameter set to 10 km to the north, south, east, and west, a 10-dBz echo-top height threshold set to 9 km, and a 16-dBz reflectivity threshold at 3 km to ensure only isolated, shallow, and weak rain originally classified as stratiform, is reclassified as convection. Analyses of these products clearly suggest two MJO events occurring in October and November as indicated by the Wheeler and Hendon Multivariate MJO index. While stratiform rain almost always encompassed a larger area of the radar domain, convective rain was the larger producer of rain with the exception of active MJO periods. In addition, echo-top height counts are observed to increase in both vertical structure and frequency as the MJO initiates and becomes active over the radar domain. Possible connections are also made between echo-top height data and humidity retrievals from soundings launched on Addu Atoll. It appears that during MJO initiation, convective echo tops lead the moistening of the mid troposphere, while during suppressed phases, the convective echo tops lag behind the moistening of the mid troposphere. Wind shear also appears to be weaker during an active MJO event, and increase as the active MJO exits the region. From these observations, as well as other rain statistics including the diurnal cycle, indicators for a localized MJO index are proposed that are based on local radar and sounding data, rather than satellite and reanalysis observations of wind and outgoing long-wave radiation.