Browsing by Subject "Infrastructure (Economics)"
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Item A methodological framework for probabilistic evaluation of financial viability of transportation infrastructure under public private partnerships(2009-05) Pantelias, Aristeidis; Zhang, Zhanmin, 1962-This research proposes a methodological framework for the probabilistic evaluation of the financial viability of transportation infrastructure projects procured as Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). In doing so a methodological approach is undertaken. First, this research investigates the various risks of PPP projects, in particular the investment risk in terms of both the depth and its corresponding methods of evaluation, yielding a new method for more accurate estimation. Second, it examines the multiple facets of financial viability, stemming from the different meaning that it has for the various project stakeholders, i.e., the public authority, the lenders and the equity investors. From this study a connection between the financial viability and the investment risk is established for the purpose of using the latter for the assessment of the former. Based on this established connection, this research proposes a general methodological framework that can be used for the probabilistic evaluation of the financial viability of other types of revenue-generating transportation infrastructure projects, procured as PPPs. This framework proposes the evaluation of the financial viability through the estimation of the project's investment risk, using available numerical and/or analytical approximation techniques such as the Method of Moments. The general methodological framework is then utilized for the specific case of highway toll-road concession projects, where detailed and specific quantitative models are devised for the determination of the costs and revenues of these projects. Additionally, and by capitalizing on similar models found elsewhere in the literature, this dissertation also proposes a process to increase the accuracy of the Maintenance and Rehabilitation cost estimates, borrowing concepts stemming from reliability and stochastic processes. The findings of this research are expected to help all project stakeholders with their evaluation of whether or not a project under consideration is capable of achieving their respective financial targets. The proposed methodology can be used as a quantitative tool for project evaluation and investment appraisal by all project stakeholders. However, as in any decision support methodology, the purpose of the proposed framework is not to replace decision makers but to help them make better and informed decisions.Item Modeling heterogeneity in transportation infrastructure deterioration(2007-05) Hong, Feng, 1977-; Prozzi, Jorge AlbertoOne of the key elements for managing transportation infrastructure is to accurately capture and predict the performance of the facility through well established deterioration models. A sound deterioration model should incorporate 1) physical principle that reflects the deterioration mechanism; 2) relevant variables affecting the deterioration process; and 3) rigorous statistical approach to estimating the model. This dissertation aims at addressing these critical issues with focus on highway pavements. Data collected from in-service pavement sections are adopted to capture the real-world pavement deterioration process. A widely used pavement performance indicator, riding quality in terms of International Roughness Index (IRI) is used. A nonlinear model with a hierarchical parameter structure is formulated to effectively account for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The model is estimated through an econometric technique, Maximum Simulated Likelihood estimation. Simulation is employed to solve the computationally challenging problem of multi-dimensional integration. Engineering implications based on estimation results are discussed. The findings are not only consistent with engineering judgment but also helpful to reveal and enhance understanding of the pavement deterioration mechanism. Furthermore, the proposed methodology provides flexibility to obtain both parameters reflecting deterioration for all units and each individual unit of the population. The second part of the dissertation establishes and evaluates optimal maintenance policy on the basis of realistic deterioration models. The optimal policy is obtained so that the total cost, agency plus user cost, is minimized. A steady state resurfacing problem is investigated in the case study. In particular, the effect of model accuracy related to unobserved heterogeneity on total cost is discussed. This study makes a contribution to transportation infrastructure management and design in the following sense. From a management viewpoint, the proposed methodology with hierarchical parameters can accommodate both network and project levels of management. It also facilitates decision making for budget planning and resource allocation. From a design viewpoint, model estimation results can be used to update the current AASHTO pavement design equation by incorporating other critical factors.Item Modeling heterogeneity in transportation infrastructure deterioration: application to pavement(2007) Hong, Feng; Prozzi, Jorge A.