Browsing by Subject "Florida"
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Item Assessment of the Potential Effect of Climate Change on Hurricane Risk and Vulnerability in Florida(2014-12-05) Ruiz, MichelleHurricanes are a yearly threat to the eastern and Gulf coasts of the United States. An increase in frequency and intensity of hurricanes is a possible and dangerous consequence of future climate change. To assess the threat of more frequent and intense hurricanes, this research will address how climate change will affect future hurricane activity in Florida. A greater understanding of how climate change will affect hurricanes is vital for regions, such as Florida, that are vulnerable to these powerful storms. Hurricane return periods were calculated for all Florida counties based on 1900-2010. Hurricane landfalls were quantified using a dynamic wind model which allowed for the spatial extent of each storm to be examined. A meta-analysis of the existing literature on the effects of climate change on hurricane behavior was performed. Using the findings from the meta-analysis, a sensitivity analysis was performed to determine how climate change may affect hurricane damage and loss for Florida. The HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model was used to estimate losses and damage from hurricane winds based on Florida?s growing population and increasing coastal development. Results show that wind-derived return periods more accurately depict the distribution of a storm?s wind field. Counties in southern Florida have the lowest return periods based on the track-derived and wind-derived return periods. Based on the meta-analysis, hurricane intensity is expected to increase by 2 to 11%. Hurricane frequency is expected to decrease or remain the same and storm tracks are not expected to change. The sensitivity analysis examined the influence of climate change on baseline (current), moderate (15% increase), and extreme (35% increase) TC intensity scenarios. The most developed and populated regions are the most vulnerable to hurricane damages and losses. Based on the boxplots, the spread of percent values increases for building damage, economic losses, and shelter needs as storm intensity increases. The spread in the data shown in the scatterplots and boxplots is storm specific. This research found that southeastern Florida is at highest risk of future hurricane landfalls and most vulnerable to hurricane damages and losses.Item Ecology and transmission dynamics of Everglades virus(2005-10-20) Lark Lee Arwen Coffey; Douglas Watts; Daniel Brooks; Billy PhilipsEverglades virus (EVEV), an alphavirus in the Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) serocomplex, circulates among rodents and vector mosquitoes in Florida and occasionally infects humans, causing a febrile disease sometimes accompanied by neurological manifestations. \r\nEVEV infections of cotton rats from Florida, and from Texas, a non-endemic area were performed to validate their role in enzootic transmission and to evaluate whether the viremia induced regulates EVEV distribution. Cotton rats from both localities developed viremia levels that exceeded the threshold for infection of the vector indicating that rat susceptibility does not limit EVEV distribution. \r\nSusceptibility experiments were performed with _Aedes taeniorhynchus_ and _Culex nigripalpus_, potential EVEV vectors, to evaluate their permissiveness to EVEV infection. In contrast to the high degree of susceptibility of the established vector _Culex (Melanoconion) cedecei_, these two species were relatively refractory to oral EVEV infection, indicating that they are probably not important vectors. \r\nPet dogs were used as sentinels of EVEV activity to detect recent circulation and to delineate EVEV distribution. Four percent of Florida dog sera contained EVEV antibody and many animals lived farther north than recorded EVEV activity, indicating that EVEV is widespread in the state and may be a cause of undiagnosed febrile illness in residents.\r\nDespite evidence that enzootic subtype ID Venezuelan equine encephalitis viruses (VEEVs), the closest relatives of EVEV, have emerged to cause significant human and equine disease, EVEV has not caused outbreaks in Florida. Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus emergence can be mediated by adaptation to epizootic mosquito vectors via mutations in the E2 glycoprotein gene. EVEV may accrue similar E2 mutations resulting in epizootic disease in Florida. The role of the EVEV E2 gene in epizootic vector infection was evaluated with a VEEV/EVEV E2 chimera. Insertion of the EVEV E2 into the VEEV backbone reduced infection in _Ae. taeniorhynchus_ by 40%, indicating that the epizootic VEEV E2 is necessary for infection of epizootic vectors. \r\nThe intrinsic plasticity of RNA viruses can facilitate changes in host range that may cause epidemics. However, the evolutionary processes that promote cross-species virus transfers are poorly defined, especially for generalist RNA arboviruses that replicate alternately in arthropods and vertebrates and often exhibit slower evolutionary rates than other RNA viruses with similar mutation frequencies that replicate only in vertebrates. The observed genetic stability of RNA arboviruses may result from constraints imposed by alternating between disparate hosts, where optimal replication in one host involves a fitness tradeoff for the alternate host. Accordingly, freeing RNA arboviruses from the alternate replication cycle, and thereby allowing them to specialize in a single host, will facilitate faster evolution and adaptation. To test this hypothesis in vivo, VEEV was passaged serially in mosquitoes or in vertebrates to eliminate host alteration, or alternately between mosquitoes and vertebrates. Virus lineages allowed to specialize in mosquitoes exhibited increased mosquito infectivity, and vertebrate-specialized strains produced higher viremias. Alternately passaged VEEV exhibited no detectable fitness gains in either host and serial passaged VEEV exhibited fitness declines in the bypassed host. These results support the hypothesis that arbovirus adaptation and evolution is limited by obligate host alternation. \r\n\r\nItem Evaluating Florida's Coastal Protected Areas: A Model for Coastal Management Plan Evaluation(2011-02-22) Bernhardt, Sarah PraegerThis research presents the first coastal and marine protected areas specific quantitative management plan evaluation protocol. This critical research gap in the coastal and marine protected area (CMPA) research literature was addressed by creating a protocol for evaluating CMPA plan quality utilizing a combination of marine protected area (MPA) and land use planning techniques for the first time, then applying it to a sample of CMPAs providing both descriptive results of CMPA plan quality and analysis of factors that might influence plan quality. A sample of CMPAs (n=40) under the jurisdiction of Florida?s Coastal and Aquatic Managed Areas (CAMA) was evaluated for plan quality using 96 indicators scored as 0, 1, or 2 and then divided into five plan components: factual basis, goals and objectives, policies, tools and strategies, inter-governmental coordination and cooperation, and implementation and monitoring. Total CMPA plan quality averaged 29.40 out of a possible 50.00. CMPA plan quality ranged from 20.00 to 47.00 with a standard deviation of 7.07. Regression analysis examined the effects of CMPA context, participation, environmental threats and socioeconomic factors on CMPA plan quality. The age of CMPA plans was found to be a significant indicator of CMPA plan quality. Other significant indicators of plan quality included threatened biodiversity, participation, and percent of adjacent developed or agricultural land.Item Geoarchaeological Investigations into Paleoindian Adaptations on the Aucilla River, Northwest Florida(2012-07-16) Halligan, JessiThis dissertation addresses how Paleoindians used the karst drainage of the Aucilla River in northwestern Florida during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition (approximately 15-10,000 14C yr B.P.). I take a geoarchaeological approach to discuss Paleoindian land use by first defining the Late Pleistocene and Holocene geological record, and then by creating a model of site formation processes in the Aucilla River. Both underwater and terrestrial fieldwork were performed. Underwater fieldwork consisted of hand-driven cores and surface survey, vibrocoring, underwater 1 x 1 m unit excavation, and controlled surface collection. Terrestrial fieldwork consisted of shovel and auger test pits. Seventeen cores were collected from five different submerged sinkhole sites, which were used to select two sites for further study: Sloth Hole (8JE121), which had been previously excavated, and Wayne's Sink (8JE1508/TA280), which was recorded but not formally investigated. Five vibrocores and two 1 x 1m units were used, with previous research, to define the geological and geoarchaeological context of Sloth Hole. Fifteen vibrocores, six 1 x 1 m excavation units, and ten 1 x 1 m surface collection units were used to define the geological, geoarchaeological, and archaeological context of Wayne's Sink. A combination of 130 shovel and auger test pits was used to define the geological, geoarchaeological, and archaeological potential of the terrestrial landscape. Five new Holocene-aged terrestrial sites were recorded. All of these data were evaluated with archival data from previously-excavated sites to create models of site formation and Paleoindian land use in the lower Aucilla Basin. This research shows that there have been four major periods of sinkhole infill in the lower Aucilla basin. The first occurred prior to the Last Glacial Maximum, with each sinkhole containing peat deposits that date in excess of 21,000 calendar years ago (cal B.P.). These peats are overlain by sandy colluvium that dates to approximately 14,500 cal B.P. The colluvium is overlain by clays that contain evidence for soil formation. These soils vary in age, with radiocarbon dates of approximately 14,500-10,000 cal B.P. These clays are directly overlain by peats dating to 5,000-3,500 cal B.P., which are overlain by peats and clays that date to 2,500-0 cal B.P. Intact Paleoindian and Early Archaic deposits are possible in the late Pleistocene soils.Item Last of the watermen : the end of the commercial fishing tradition in the Florida Keys(2010-12) Jones-Garcia, Dawn Elizabeth; Darling, Dennis Carlyle; Lewis, AnneThe time-honored profession of commercial fishing in the Florida Keys is in danger of extinction as each year passes and fewer commercial fishermen remain in an industry that is sinking in the wake of politicians, land developers, and financial woes. At the heart of the problem is the threat of overfishing, a subject that is increasingly at the forefront of media attention and environmental campaigns. The villain in this story of death and destruction more often than not are commercial fishermen. But the blame is misguided. Our fishermen work according to the letter of the law and strive to maintain healthy sustainable fish stocks and sound marine ecosystems. It is unlikely that the American hunger for seafood will diminish so in the absence of locally caught fish the public has no choice but to support the efforts of unchecked foreign fisheries—Fisheries that are not managed as well as ours and in some instances fish until there is nothing left to take.Item Management strategies for endangered Florida Key deer(Texas A&M University, 2004-09-30) Peterson, Markus NilsUrban development is of particular concern in the management of endangered Key deer (Odocoileous virginianus clavium) because highway mortality is the greatest single cause of deer mortality (? 50%), and the rural community of Big Pine Key, Florida constitutes the majority of Key deer habitat. Study objectives were to provide and synthesize management strategies useful in the recovery of Key deer. Specifically, I (1) used simulation modeling to evaluate effects of fetal sex ratios (FSR) on Key deer population structure, (2) evaluated the most efficient and socially acceptable urban deer capture methods, (3) evaluated changes in fawn survival, mortality agents, and range size between 1968-2002, and (4) conducted an ethnography of the human population on Big Pine Key to ascertain cultural dynamics within the community and provide guidelines for community based management of Key deer. Key deer were radio-collared (n = 335) as part of 2 separate field studies (1968-1972, 1998-2002), and mortality and survey estimates were collected throughout the entire period (1966-2002). During 1990-2002, I used an ethnographic approach to analyze the conflict surrounding Key deer management and explored how conflict and moral culture applied to this endangered species. These data were used to address my study objectives. I found the most commonly cited FSR (2.67:1, male:female) for Florida Key deer to be inaccurate. A male biased FSR of 1.45:1 was more probable. Modified drop and drive nets were appropriate methods for urban deer capture because they are passive, silent, fast, generally accepted by the public, and yielded low mortality and injury rates. Between 1968-2002 Key deer fawn survival increased in tandem with human development while range sizes decreased. This suggests a positive, but not sustainable, relationship between fawn survival and development. I found disputants on Big Pine Key divided into 2 moral cultures, 1 grounded in stewardship and the other in private property rights. Successful management strategies for the Key deer require understanding and addressing issues at several levels including: Key deer demographics, community perspectives, and cultural norms. Collectively this information can be used by wildlife managers to improve the management and recovery of Key deer.Item Mitigating Flood Loss through Local Comprehensive Planning in Florida(2010-10-12) Kang, Jung EunPlanning researchers believe that property losses from natural hazards, such as floods can be reduced if governments address this issue and adopt appropriate policies in their plans. However, little empirical research has examined the relationship between plan quality and actual property loss from floods. My research addresses this critical gap in the planning and hazard research literature by evaluating the effectiveness of current plans and policies in mitigating property damage from floods. Specifically, this study: 1) assesses the extent to which local comprehensive plans integrate flood mitigation policies in Florida; and 2) it examines the impact of the quality of flood mitigation policies on actual insured flood damages. Study results show that fifty-three local plans in the sample received a mean score for total flood mitigation policy quality of 38.55, which represents 35.69% of the total possible points. These findings indicate that there is still considerable room for improvement by local governments on flooding issues. The scores of local plans varied widely, with coastal communities receiving significantly higher scores than non-coastal communities. While most communities adopted land use management tools, such as permitted land use and wetland permits as primary flood mitigation tools, incentive based tools/taxing tools and acquisition tools were rarely adopted. This study also finds that plan quality associated with flood mitigation policy had little discernible effect on reducing insured flood damage while controlling for biophysical, built environment and socio-economic variables. This result counters the assumption inherent in previous plan quality research that better plans mitigate the adverse effects associated with floods and other natural hazards. There are some possible explanations for this result in terms of plan implementation, land use management paradox and characteristics of insurance policies. The statistical analysis also suggests that insured flood loss is considerably affected by wetland alteration and a community's location on the coast. Another finding indicates that very strong leadership and dam construction are factors in mitigating flood loss.Item Neogene Low-latitude Seasonal Environmental Variations: Stable Isotopic and Trace Elemental Records in Mollusks from the Florida Platform and the Central American Isthmus(2012-10-19) Tao, KaiThis Ph.D. dissertation integrates stable isotope and trace element geochemistry in modern and fossil gastropod shells to study low-latitude marine paleoenvironments. First, stable isotopes (delta18O and delta13C) and Sr/Ca ratios are used to examine low-latitude temperature and salinity variations recorded in Plio-Pleistocene (3.5-1.6 Ma) fossils from western Florida during periods of high-latitude warming and "global" cooling. The middle Pliocene Pinecrest Beds (Units 7 and 4) and the overlaying Plio-Pleistocene Caloosahatchee Formation generate significantly different delta18O-derived paleotemperatures but identical Sr/Ca ratios. High delta18O values, together with low delta13C values and brackish fauna, indicate that Unit 4 was deposited in a lagoonal environment similar to modern Florida Bay. In contrast, relatively low delta18O and high delta13C values in Unit 7 and Caloosahatchee Formation represent deposition in an open-marine environment. The observed Unit 7 and Caloosahatchee paleotemperatures are inconsistent with middle Pliocene warming event, but consistent with the Plio-Pleistocene cooling trend. To quantify modern upwelling and freshening signals and contrast these signals between the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) and southwestern Caribbean (SWC), methodologies are developed for reconstructing seasonal upwelling and freshening patterns from modern tropical gastropod shells from Panama using: 1) paired oxygen and carbon isotopic profiles and delta18O-delta13C (delta-delta) correlations, and 2) deviation from baseline delta18O values that represent conditions free of seasonal upwelling or freshening influences. Shell delta18O values normalized to the baseline faithfully record modern conditions of little or no upwelling in SWC and Gulf of Chiriqui, and strong upwelling in the Gulf of Panama, as well as strong freshwater input in most areas. The baseline and delta-delta methods are applied to identify and quantify changes in upwelling and freshening in the Neogene TEP and SWC seawaters associated with the final closure of Central American Isthmus. The records reveal significant upwelling in late Miocene SWC and mid Pliocene TEP waters, strong freshening in SWC waters from 5.7-2.2 Ma, and minimal seasonal upwelling and/or freshening variations in Plio-Pleistocene SWC waters. The reconstructed paleotemperatures agree with the global cooling trend through the late Miocene, but lack evidence for middle Pliocene warming or late Neogene global cooling.Item Persistent borderland: freedom and citizenship in territorial Florida(2009-05-15) Smith, Philip MatthewFlorida?s Spanish borderland was the result of over two hundred and fifty years of cooperation and contention among Indians, Spain, Britain, the United States and Africans who lived with them all. The borderland was shaped by the differing cultural definitions of color and how color affected laws about manumission, miscegenation, legitimacy, citizenship or degrees of rights for free people of color and to some extent for slaves themselves. The borderland did not vanish after the United States acquired Florida. It persisted in three ways. First, in advocacy for the former Spanish system by some white patriarchs who fathered mixed race families. Free blacks and people of color also had an interest in maintaining their property and liberties. Second, Indians in Florida and escaped slaves who allied with them well knew how whites treated non-whites, and they fiercely resisted white authority. Third, the United States reacted to both of these in the context of fear that further slave revolutions in the Caribbean, colluding with the Indian-African alliance in Florida, might destabilize slavery in the United States. In the new Florida Territory, Spanish era practices based on a less severe construction of race were soon quashed, but not without the articulate objections of a cadre of whites. Led by Zephaniah Kingsley, their arguments challenged the strict biracial system of the United States. This was a component of the persistent borderland, but their arguments were, in the end, also in the service of slavery and white patriarchy. The persistent border included this ongoing resistance to strict biracialism, but it was even more distinct because of the Indian-African resistance to the United States that was not in the service of slavery. To defend slavery and whiteness, the United States sent thousands of its military, millions of its treasure, and spent years to subdue the Indian-African alliance and to make Florida and its long shorelines a barrier to protect whiteness and patriarchy in the Deep South.Item The potential of desalination as an alternative water supply in the United States(2009-05) Naini, Anjali Nina; Butler, Kent S.Many parts of the United States are facing water shortages. Planners have to ensure that there will be an adequate water supply to meet the needs of the growing population. Though many places encourage water conservation, and some even enforce water restrictions, this is not always enough to make up for the shortages. Thus, alternative water sources need to be considered in some cases. The states of Texas and Florida both face uncertainties with their future water supply. To meet the needs of their current and future populations, both states have recently been using desalination at a large scale to supplement their water supplies. This report examines the desalination facilities in El Paso, Texas and Tampa Bay, Florida to determine if desalination is a feasible water supply and to explore the consequences of pursuing the development of this water resource.Item Radar Nowcasting of Total Lightning over the Kennedy Space Center(2011-08-08) Seroka, Gregory NicholasThe NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is situated along the east coast of central Florida, where a high frequency of lightning occurs annually. Although cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning forecasting using radar echoes has been thoroughly analyzed, few studies have examined intracloud (IC) and/or total (IC CG) lightning. In addition to CG lightning, IC flashes are of great concern to KSC launch operations. Four years (2006-2009) of summer (June, July, August) daytime (about 14-00 Z) Weather Surveillance Radar ? 1988 Doppler data for Melbourne, FL were analyzed. Convective cells were tracked using a modified version of the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm and then correlated to CG lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), as well as grouped IC flash data acquired from the KSC Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) networks I and II. Pairs of reflectivity values (30, 35, and 40 dBZ) at isothermal levels (-10, -15, -20 and updraft -10 degrees C), as well as a vertically integrated ice (VII) product were used to optimize criteria for radar-based forecasting of both IC and CG lightning within storms. Results indicate that the best radar-derived predictor of CG lightning according to CSI was 25 dBZ at -20 degrees C, while the best reflectivity at isothermal predictor for IC was 25 dBZ at -15 degrees C. Meanwhile, the best VII predictor of CG lightning was the 30th percentile (0.840 kg m-2), while the best VII predictor of IC was the 5th percentile (0.143 kg m-2), or nearly 6 times lower than for CG! VII at both CG and IC initiation was higher than at both CG and IC cessation. VII was also found to be lower at IC occurrence, including at initiation, than at CG occurrence. Seventy-six percent of cells had IC initiation before CG initiation; using the first IC flash as a predictor of CG occurrence also statistically outperformed other predictors of CG lightning. Even though average lead time for using IC as a predictor of CG was only 2.4 minutes, when taking into account automation processing and radar scan time for the other methods, lead times are much more comparable.Item Response of Texas and Florida live oak (Quercus virginiana) seedlings to water deficit treatments(2007-08) Bonds, Amber N.; Montague, David T.; Dabbert, Charles B.; McKenney, Cynthia B.Live Oak (Quercus virginiana) is a common landscape tree in much of the United States. Although in native areas live oak can be found in mesic and xeric climates, little research has been conducted to determine if provenance differences exist in the response of live oak to deficit irrigation. Therefore, this research investigated gas exchange in response to water deficit irrigation treatments of live oak seedlings from two mesic regions Groveland, Florida (USDA Hardiness zone 9) and Houston, Texas (USDA Hardiness zone 9) and one xeric region, Justiceburg, Texas (central Texas) (USDA Hardiness Zone 7). In May 2006, one-year old live oak seedlings from both Houston, Texas and Groveland, Florida were shipped to Texas Tech from Groveland, Florida. Acorns from Justiceburg, Texas were collected from several trees in October 2005. Acorns were germinated and planted according to standard nursery practices. To acclimatize seedlings, in June 2006 all seedlings were placed outside under shade cloth for two weeks and then in full sun for one month. When seedlings were in full sun weekly stomatal conductance and leaf temperature were measured and leaf to air vapor pressure difference was calculated weekly. After the acclimation period 21 seedlings from each location were brought into a greenhouse, assigned one of three watering treatments (control seedlings were watered every day, moderate water deficit seedlings were watered every other day, and severe water deficit seedlings were watered every fourth day), and arranged in randomized complete blocks. Prior to irrigation of severe drought seedlings, mid-day stomatal conductance and leaf temperature were measured. To calculate transpirational water loss, seedling leaf area was measured and prior to and after each irrigation seedlings were weighed. Outdoors, prior to irrigation treatments seedlings from Lake Alan Henry, Texas had greater mid-day stomatal conductance and lower leaf to air vapor pressure deficit when compared to seedlings from Groveland, Florida or Houston, Texas. In the greenhouse, seedling gas exchange was influenced by water deficit treatment and provenance. Mid-day stomatal conductance and leaf to air vapor pressure difference for Lake Alan Henry, Texas seedlings did not differ among water deficit treatments. However, Groveland, Florida and Houston, Texas seedlings exposed to severe drought had lower mid-day stomatal conductance and greater leaf to air vapor pressure difference when compared to seedlings exposed to control or moderate irrigation treatments. Regardless of irrigation treatment, seedlings from Lake Alan Henry, Texas had greater mid-day stomatal conductance, lower leaf to air vapor pressure difference, and less negative pre-dawn water potential when compared to Groveland, Florida or Houston, Texas seedlings. Lake Alan Henry, Texas trees also had greater water loss regardless of irrigation treatment. Our data indicate the response of live oak seedlings from Lake Alan Henry, Texas, Houston, Texas, and Groveland, Florida differ in their response to water deficit treatments and that live oak trees from Lake Alan Henry, Texas may be better adapted to xeric sites than live oaks from more mesic environments.