Browsing by Subject "Demographic transition"
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Item Comparative population policy(2011-05) Hardy, David McGrath; Wilson, Robert Hines; Stolp, ChandlerIn the last thirty years an increasing number of governments are taking an interest in the growth rate and age structure of their populations. The chief concern among advanced economies is that pay-as-you-go pension and health care systems for the elderly will be unsustainable as the ratio of younger workers to older beneficiaries shrinks from aging populations. Resistance to reforms such as reduced or delayed benefits, or higher taxes has focused attention on a third option, growing the working-age population. There is a growing consensus on the economic benefits of population growth, a reversal from the 1960s through 80s. Governments try to grow the population through incentives for more children and/or accepting more immigrants. This report compares the population policies of Singapore, the United States, France, and Japan to analyze governments' motives and policy outcomes. Middle-income nations like China and Brazil can learn from the experiences of developed nations to avoid the same predicament in the future. Each government's mix of fertility incentives, immigrants, and guest workers is a product of their economic and political circumstances. The surest way to grow the population, accepting immigrants, is usually the least popular. The most popular is the most unproven, providing benefits for larger families. There is no consensus what the most effective fertility incentives are. Population policy has never been just about the economy, it is steeped in political and cultural visions. Shedding that political baggage is a prerequisite to a more rational, sustainable policy approach to demography.Item The demographic transition and the education of teenagers in Mexico(2010-05) Vargas Valle, Eunice Danitza; Potter, Joseph E.; Raley, R. Kelly; Powers, Daniel A.; Marteleto, Leticia; Giorguli Saucedo, Silvia E.From a theoretical point of view, competition for the educational resources at the family and the population levels may change as the demographic transition advances. Although family size started to decline in the mid-1960s in México, the reduction in the size of the cohorts that compete for educational resources has recently occurred and it is an ongoing process in most municipalities of the country. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to examine the relationship between teenagers’ education and the demographic transition in México. The study explored if the teenagers’ school enrollment, age-grade delay at school and lower-secondary school attainment were linked to the teenagers’ number of siblings, as well as their cohort size in the municipality of residence in 2000. The 10% sample of the Mexican Housing and Population Census of 2000 was used as the main source of information. The study employed multivariate logistic regression models to accomplish its goals. Interactions between number of siblings and cohort size were tested. Also, interactions between these indicators and the teenagers’ gender and socioeconomic status were assessed respectively. The results indicated that contextual factors explained the initial negative association between teenagers’ education and cohort size, since this association disappeared or became small and positive after the addition of covariates. The Mexican educational system seems to have had the capacity of absorbing the demands in school coverage of the growing teenage population. The study revealed, however, that there was a large and negative association between teenagers’ education and number of siblings. Moreover, the study showed that the odds of the educational outcomes generally experienced larger changes by each additional sibling in the places where the demographic transition is more advanced, as well as among females and among the teenagers with high socioeconomic status. These results suggest that the educational disadvantages associated with multiple siblings may become more pronounced in the future and within certain contexts, as the demographic transition continues and big families become a smaller proportion of Mexican families.Item The effect of land degradation on fertility in West Africa : disaggregating the demographic response(2010-12) Sasson, Isaac; Crews-Meyer, Kelley A.; Weinreb, Alexander A.Demographic responses to environmental stress have long been hypothesized in classic population theory, though empirical analyses remain scarce and traditionally focus on aggregate units of analysis. With the growing concern over environmental degradation it remains an empirical question as to how, to what extent and in which spatial and temporal scales populations, especially in developing countries, are directly and indirectly affected by their immediate natural surroundings. This paper examines the link between fertility related behavior of women at the individual level and several environmental determinants across eight sub-Saharan West African countries. Data is pooled from georeferenced Demographic and Health Surveys (conducted 2001-2005) combined with long term climatic data and a time series of remotely sensed vegetation index spanning 23 years. Results consistently show little to no effect of immediate natural resources or gross land degradation on fertility related behavior, but that effects tend to become more pronounced in larger geographic scales. Despite data limitations these results call for improved theoretical specificity. Questions that need to be addressed, both theoretically and empirically, are at which spatial and temporal scales environmental pressures induce certain types of demographic responses.