Browsing by Subject "Decline Curve Analysis"
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Item A New Series of Rate Decline Relations Based on the Diagnosis of Rate-Time Data(2010-01-14) Boulis, AnastasiosThe so-called "Arps" rate decline relations are by far the most widely used tool for assessing oil and gas reserves from rate performance. These relations (i.e., the exponential and hyperbolic decline relations) are empirical where the starting point for their derivation is given by the definitions of the "loss ratio" and the "derivative of the loss ratio", where the "loss ratio" is the ratio of rate data to derivative of rate data, and the "derivative of the loss ratio" is the "b-parameter" as defined by Arps [1945]. The primary goal of this work is the interpretation of the b-parameter continuously over time and thus the better understanding of its character. As is shown below we propose "monotonically decreasing functional forms" for the characterization of the b-parameter, in addition to the exponential and hyperbolic rate decline relations, where the b-parameter is assumed to be zero and constant, respectively. The proposed equations are as follow: b(t)=constant (Arps' hyperbolic rate-decline relation), []tbbtb10exp)(-bt= (exponential function), (power-law function), 10)(btbtb=)/(1)(10tbbtb+= (rational function). The corresponding rate decline relation for each case is obtained by solving the differential equation associated with the selected functional for the b-parameter. The next step of this procedure is to test and validate each of the rate decline relations by applying them to various numerical simulation cases (for gas), as well as for field data cases obtained from tight/shale gas reservoirs. Our results indicate that b-parameter is never constant but it changes continuously with time. The ultimate objective of this work is to establish each model as a potential analysis/diagnostic relation. Most of the proposed models yield more realistic estimations of gas reserves in comparison to the traditional Arps' rate decline relations (i.e., the hyperbolic decline) where the reserves estimates are inconsistent and over-estimated. As an example, the rational b-parameter model seems to be the most accurate model in terms of representing the character of rate data; and therefore, should yield more realistic reserves estimates. Illustrative examples are provided for better understanding of each b-parameter rate decline model. The proposed family of rate decline relations was based on the character of the b-parameter computed from the rate-time data and they can be applied to a wide range of data sets, as dictated by the character of rate data.Item Stretched Exponential Decline Model as a Probabilistic and Deterministic Tool for Production Forecasting and Reserve Estimation in Oil and Gas Shales(2012-07-16) Akbarnejad Nesheli, BabakToday everyone seems to agree that ultra-low permeability and shale reservoirs have become the potentials to transform North America's oil and gas industry to a new phase. Unfortunately, transient flow is of long duration (perhaps life of the well) in ultra-low permeability reservoirs, and traditional decline curve analysis (DCA) models can lead to significantly over-optimistic production forecasts without additional safeguards. Stretched Exponential decline model (SEDM) gives considerably more stabilized production forecast than traditional DCA models and in this work it is shown that it produces unchanging EUR forecasts after only two-three years of production data are available in selected reservoirs, notably the Barnett Shale. For an individual well, the SEDM model parameters, can be determined by the method of least squares in various ways, but the inherent nonlinear character of the least squares problem cannot be bypassed. To assure a unique solution to the parameter estimation problem, this work suggests a physics-based regularization approach, based on critical velocity concept. Applied to selected Barnett Shale gas wells, the suggested method leads to reliable and consistent EURs. To further understand the interaction of the different fracture properties on reservoir response and production decline curve behavior, a series of Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) simulations were performed. Results show that at least a 3-layer model is required to reproduce the decline behavior as captured in the published SEDM parameters for Barnett Shale. Further, DFN modeling implies a large number of parameters like fracture density and fracture length are in such a way that their effect can be compensated by the other one. The results of DFN modeling of several Barnett Shale horizontal wells, with numerous fracture stages, showed a very good agreement with the estimated SEDM model for the same wells. Estimation of P90 reserves that meet SEC criteria is required by law for all companies that raise capital in the United States. Estimation of P50 and P10 reserves that meet SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) criteria is important for internal resource inventories for most companies. In this work a systematic methodology was developed to quantify the range of uncertainty in production forecast using SEDM. This methodology can be used as a probabilistic tool to quantify P90, P50, and P10 reserves and hence might provide one possible way to satisfy the various legal and technical-society-suggested criteria.Item Well Performance Analysis for Low to Ultra-low Permeability Reservoir Systems(2010-10-12) Ilk, DilhanUnconventional reservoir systems can best be described as petroleum (oil and/or gas) accumulations which are difficult to be characterized and produced by conventional technologies. In this work we present the development of a systematic procedure to evaluate well performance in unconventional (i.e., low to ultra-low permeability) reservoir systems. The specific tasks achieved in this work include the following: ? Integrated Diagnostics and Analysis of Production Data in Unconventional Reservoirs: We identify the challenges and common pitfalls of production analysis and provide guidelines for the analysis of production data. We provide a comprehensive workflow which consists of model-based production analysis (i.e., rate-transient or model matching approaches) complemented by traditional decline curve analysis to estimate reserves in unconventional reservoirs. In particular, we use analytical solutions (e.g., elliptical flow, horizontal well with multiple fractures solution, etc.) which are applicable to wells produced in unconventional reservoirs. ? Deconvolution: We propose to use deconvolution to identify the correlation between pressure and rate data. For our purposes we modify the B-spline deconvolution algorithm to obtain the constantpressure rate solution using cumulative production and bottomhole pressure data in real time domain. It is shown that constant-pressure rate and constant-rate pressure solutions obtained by deconvolution could identify the correlation between measured rate and pressure data when used in conjunction. ? Series of Rate-Time Relations: We develop three new main rate-time relations and five supplementary rate-time relations which utilize power-law, hyperbolic, stretched exponential, and exponential components to properly model the behavior of a given set of rate-time data. These relations are well-suited for the estimation of ultimate recovery as well as for extrapolating production into the future. While our proposed models can be used for any system, we provide application almost exclusively for wells completed in unconventional reservoirs as a means of providing estimates of time-dependent reserves. We attempt to correlate the rate-time relation model parameters versus model-based production analysis results. As example applications, we present a variety of field examples using production data acquired from tight gas, shale gas reservoir systems.