Browsing by Subject "Decision support system"
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Item A decision support system for rapid evaluation and selection of engineered equipment suppliers(2009-08) Azambuja, Marcelo Menna Barreto; O'Brien, William J.Procurement’s role in engineering and construction is changing. Procurement is evolving into a far more strategic discipline. Major equipment procurement in particular ties up a large proportion of construction cost, has long lead time, and is usually associated with the acquisition of complex or specialized technology. Selection of suppliers is a complex process which requires the evaluation of several suppliers and project targets. This analysis is usually performed manually, it is time consuming, and certain tradeoffs may be overlooked. This research advances state of the art to aid the commercial evaluation and selection of engineered equipment suppliers in the early stages of capital projects. A decision support system was developed in cooperation with several leading engineering-procurement-construction (EPC) and owner firms within industrial construction. The system integrates firms’ market and supplier performance data with a decision aid method to support rapid tradeoff analysis and evaluation of sourcing alternatives in the early stages of capital projects. The tool has been developed in Visual C#, in the form of simple and intuitive forms, with Microsoft Access as the back-end database. A supplier selection module uses the Aspiration Interactive Method (AIM) for providing rapid tradeoff analysis and points how each supplier is ranked in relation to the expected procurement targets. The system also includes a module for schedule analysis of the preferred supplier. Managers first need to assess unique project and supplier’s characteristics to estimate most likely durations. These durations are used to run a PERT analysis and provide initial feedback on probability of equipment delivery success. Therefore, managers are able to check whether their procurement master schedule milestones are feasible or not. Two actual selection cases were used to validate system’s usefulness, completeness, and deployability. According to experienced managers, this tool brings intelligence to the traditional selection process. The ability to quickly generate what-if scenarios and rapidly perform tradeoff analysis based on real data improves the quality of decision making, and supports commercial assessment and recommendation of suppliers in the early phases of capital projects.Item Finding a reasonable aquifer yield : support methods for groundwater policy in Texas(2013-05) Petrossian, Rima; Eaton, David J.Managing groundwater can be difficult because there is no common perspective among stakeholders about what they wish for their desired future conditions (DFCs) for Texas' aquifers. Conflicts over how to manage aquifers, whether to mine or sustain groundwater levels are complicated by diverse state and local approaches. This dissertation proposes a decision support method to derive acceptable future aquifer conditions through engaging stakeholders by combining five processes: landowner surveys, stakeholder and decision maker focus groups, contingent valuation, system element identification and scenario-testing. Surveys of water users identified conflicts among water users and decision makers' preferences. For example, how much is groundwater worth in Texas? Responses to two survey questions revealed a willingness to buy groundwater for an average of $2,872 per acre-foot. Most landowners most did not want to sell groundwater at any cost. Those willing to sell revealed an average of $4,069 per acre-foot. A survey of landowners and decision makers indicated that 41 percent of landowners indicated that no new users be issued permits to support stable Trinity Aquifer groundwater levels. Meanwhile, the decision makers chose a DFC of a 30 foot drawdown in the Trinity Aquifer over 50 years. Stakeholder surveys identified the 'best groundwater decision makers' as being the stakeholders or well owners, yet 75 percent of the decision makers preferred the groundwater conservation district board presidents. This suggests that stakeholders would prefer to be the decision makers rather than being asked for their preferences. One decision-maker focus group identified 12 elements representing their understanding of the DFC process. These elements form a system information diagram or preference map. Such a map can help identify alternative pathways for solving problems in the decision process. These complexities remain challenging as Texas moves toward more local regulatory control, more competing interests, and less certainty about Texas' future groundwater supply.Item A spatial decision support framework for web-based, multi-stakeholder engagement : case study of geothermal power project siting in Idaho(2013-12) Noll, Daniel John; Pierce, Suzanne Alise, 1969-; Eaton, David J.; Butler, JohnMulti-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) represents an emerging decision aid tool in the field of natural resource decision-making. This thesis involves research into the application of a multi-criteria spatial decisions support system (MC-SDSS) to support favorability mapping of geothermal resource potential. The main goal is to provide proof of concept of a tool that can facilitate multi-stakeholder engagement during site selection of a potential power generation facility. It presents information on the history and development of spatial decision support systems in the field of environmental and natural resource decision-making, as well as a case study of a MC-SDSS tool--entitled the "Heatseeker" application-- developed and applied to geothermal resource potential in the Eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho. This research was first conducted under a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy National Geothermal Student Competition. The Heatseeker application and supporting infrastructure utilizes a client/server system architecture that provides users with access to spatial and tabular data with low bandwidth requirements. Client-side scripting is used to execute a weighted linear combination (WLC) model and provide users with display and report functionality. Additionally, the tool is optimized for use with a gesture-enabled touch device that serves as a boundary object to facilitate participatory stakeholder engagement. The result of this research is a proof of concept in supporting future MC-SDSS design that can be applied both to geothermal favorability mapping and other natural resource management processes. This work draws upon the research traditions of multiple academic disciplines, including operations research, computer science, cognitive and behavioral psychology, economics, and public policy. The initial development and application of the MC-SDSS tool involved a team of graduate and undergraduate students from geoscience and social science disciplines. Transdisciplinary approaches to problem structuring and decision-making such as this are an increasingly common approach to natural resource issues.