Browsing by Subject "Decision making"
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Item A case study analysis of organizational communication effectiveness between user-managers and information service department personnel(Texas Tech University, 1978-12) Spence, Jimmy WayneNot availableItem A conceptual model and an implementation of adaptive decision support systems(Texas Tech University, 1998-12) Chuang, Ta-tao; Yadav, Surya B.; Bravoco, Ralph R.; Menon, Nirup M.; Zhang, Hong-ChaoAdaptation of decision support systems (DSS) is an important issue in DSS research. Previous research into adaptation of DSS has been focused on individual elements of traditional three-component architectures. The dissertation proposes and validates an integrated conceptual model of adaptive decision support systems (ADSS) which adapts its functions, stmcture, and interfaces in order to support the changing needs of decision makers. The conceptual model is a generic architecture for the development of domain-specific ADSS. Following a unified research methodology, the dissertation specifically addresses the following issues: 1. What is the adaptive behavior of an ADSS? 2. What knowledge and capabilities are needed to embody the identified adaptive behaviors? 3. What architecture is required to support these capabilities? Based on previous research into adaptivity of information systems, five adaptive behaviors of ADSS are identified. Eight different types of knowledge are recognized to support the five adaptive behaviors. The model of reflexive systems and a framework of decision making organization are used as theoretical foundations for stmcturing various components. The ADSS conceptual model consists of three units at two levels: the meta-level and the basic-level. Two units at the basic-level are user interface unit and problem processing unit, which are responsible for communicating with the user and carrying out the task of decision support, respectively. The meta-level unit has an introspection mechanism and a self-knowledge base, which comprise a controlling unit capable of introspecting the system's knowledge and limitations, and determining an appropriate action to adjust the capabilities of basic-level units. The notion of software agents was employed to develop a prototype system in order to examine the feasibility ofthe conceptual model. Software agents were organized in the form of a federate agent-based architecture. The field of real estate was used as the problem domain in developing the prototype. Three types of decision tasks were implemented in the prototype system. A panel of three experts knowledgeable about information systems evaluated the prototype system against five major features. The evaluation results validate the feasibility and usability ofthe conceptual model of ADSS.Item A decision simulation exercise in business cycles and forecasting(1964-08) Slayback, Harry BakerNot AvailableItem A longitudinal study of stress and coping processes in college women(Texas Tech University, 1996-08) Whatley, Sherry LynneEmotion-focused coping and problem-focused coping are examined in relation to dysphoria, anxiety, anger, social support, stress, and end-of-semester introductory psychology course points. Female introductory psychology students (N = 2 69) at Texas Tech University completed self-report measures related to these variables at Time 1. At Time 2, six weeks later, 245 of these students completed these self-report measures again. As hypothesized, emotion-focused coping was significantly, and positively, related to dysphoria, anxiety, anger, and stress across time periods. Furthermore, problem-focused coping was significantly, and negatively, associated with all of these variables over time, excluding anger. Higher problem-focused coping at Time 2 was significantly related to less anger at the same time period. A significant negative association was found between emotion-focused coping at Time 1 and satisfaction with social support across time. Moreover, emotion-focused coping at Time 2 was significantly, and negatively, related to satisfaction with social support at the second time period. Higher emotion-focused coping across time was also significantly related to lower end-of-semester introductory psychology points.Item A survey of the use of marginal analysis as a decision-making tool by Lubbock manufacturers(Texas Tech University, 1965-08) Guynes, C. StephenNot availableItem An analytical comparison of several statistical techniques for the prediction of demand(Texas Tech University, 1965-05) Uher, Edward LouisThe purpose of this investigation is to compare three generally accepted statistical decision- making techniques with reference to their applicability to the problem of demand prediction» The three techniques are (1) a modified Bayesian Decision-Making procedure, (2) a modified C-Chart procedure, and (3) a Sequential decision procedure which includes the use of the Likelihood-Ratlo Test.This investigation will be confined to the problem of demand prediction which is an Integral part of the over-all problem of provisioning and inventory policies.Item An experimental investigation of a graphical interactive problem structuring aid for decision support systems(Texas Tech University, 1982-08) Pracht, William EverettThe ecology of field-feeding dabbling ducks wintering on the Southern High Plains of Texas was studied on a 50 km2 study area in Castro County, from September-March 1979-82. Ducks relied primarily on waste corn that averaged 364 j^ 12 kg/ha/field. Fields harvested at 14-21^ moisture lost more than twice the corn as fields harvested at 22-36^ moisture. Therefore, moisture content of corn at harvest provided a useful measure to predict initial waste. Waste cornfields underwent a variety of agricultural treatments that affected the abundance and availability of waste corn to waterfowl. Burning stubble maximized abundance and availability, whereas deep plowing reduced abundance by 975o. Disking and grazing reduced abundance by 77^ and 84-%, respectively. However, landowners tended to graze cattle on fields where initial waste was high and thus substantial amounts of waste corn remained when grazing was terminated. Manual salvage by migrant workers removed 58% of initial corn waste. Field-feeding waterfowl conducted 2 flights daily to cornfields near playa lakes where the birds concentrated. The average morning flight was initiated 52 j^ 1.5 min before sunrise and terminated in 23 _+ 1 .4 min. The average evening flight began 25 j^ 2.0 min after sunset and terminated in 37 j^ 4.2 min with duration increasing as the season progressed. Dabbling ducks fed longer and participated more in evening as compared to concurrent daily morning flights. Minimum temperatures were correlated negatively with duration of evening flights, but not morning flights. There was no correlation between the amount of waste corn in, or the condition of, a field selected by feeding ducks with duration or initiation of feeding flights. However, the amount of corn present was correlated negatively with duration of the evening flight. Snowfall was positively correlated with duration of evening flights, but not morning flights. Feeding flocks selected fields based on an abundance/availability hierarchy, apparently attempting to minimize foraging time. Eurned fields were preferred most when available, followed by disked fields, especially those containing >60 kg waste corn/ha. Field-feeding is an adaption to widespread agriculture, but also is a learned response to changes in wetland habitats.Item Application of real options to valuation and decision making in the petroleum E&P industry(2010-12) Xu, Liying, 1962-; Van Rensburg, W. C. J.; Sepehrnoori, Kamy, 1951-This study is to establish a binomial lattice method to apply real options theory to valuation and decision making in the petroleum exploration and production industry with a specific focus on the switching time from primary to water flooding oil recovery. First, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) historical oil price evolution in the past 25 years is studied and modeled with the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and one-factor mean reversion price models to capture the oil price uncertainty. Second, to conduct real options evaluation, specific reservoir simulations are designed and oil production profile for primary and water flooding oil recovery for a synthetic onshore oil reservoir is generated using UTCHEM reservoir simulator. Third, a cash flow model from producing the oil reservoir is created with a concessionary fiscal system. Finally, the binomial lattice real options evaluation method is established to value the project with flexibility in the switching time from primary to water flooding oil recovery under uncertain oil prices. The research reaches seven conclusions: 1) for the GBM price model, the assumptions of constant drift rate and constant volatility do not hold for WTI historical oil price; 2) one-factor mean reversion price model is a better model to fit the historical WTI oil prices than the GBM model; 3) the evolution of historical WTI oil prices from January 2, 1986 to May 28, 2010 was according to three price regimes with different long run prices; 4) the established real options evaluation method can be used to identify the best time to switch from primary to water flooding oil recovery using stochastic oil prices; 5) with the mean reversion oil price model and the most updated cost data, the real options evaluation method finds that the water flooding switching time is earlier than the traditional net present value (NPV) optimizing method; 6) the real options evaluation results reveals that most of time water flooding should start when oil price is high, and should not start when oil price is low; and 7) water flooding switching time is sensitive to oil price model to be used and to the investment and operating costs.Item Applications of statistics to a probability profit budget(Texas Tech University, 1970-05) Howell, Douglas DinnisonNot availableItem Applying Crew Resource Management Principles to Police Work(Law Enforcement Management Institute of Texas (LEMIT), 2017) Pecena, PaulAn airplane crash in 1977, the most lethal in aviation history, prompted research by NASA into the causes of aviation accidents (Hagen, 2013). This, in turn, led to the development of training procedures known as “crew resource management” or CRM. This training focused on communication, leadership, and how to make the best possible decisions when time is short and the stakes are high (Helmreich, Merritt, & Wilhelm, 2001). Police departments should incorporate the principles and techniques of crew resource management when training police officers and supervisors to work as a team during high stress incidents.Item Career decision making: the contribution of information, values, and decision training to effective choice(Texas Tech University, 1984-08) Sauer, Gordon ChenowethNot availableItem Cuban Americans and type 2 diabetes : describing self-management decision making using an empowerment framework(2013-08) Cuevas, Heather E.; Brown, Sharon A., 1943-This qualitative descriptive study examined the day-to-day self-management decision making in Cuban Americans with type 2 diabetes including major decisions, resources and influences to decisions, desired amount of control and advice, and the role of the health care provider. The sample consisted of 20 English speaking, Cuban-American adults between the ages of 45 to 65 years. The mean A1C was 7.49%; mean diabetes duration 4.5 years. Data were collected through discussion of a short self-management decision-making scenario, a semi-structured interview, and demographic questionnaire. Interviews were analyzed using Miles and Huberman’s method of content analysis framed by the concepts of Paolo Freire’s empowerment theory. Self-management tasks of exercise, diet, medication administration, and glucose monitoring were all thought to be important by the participants. Cost, time, structural barriers, social environment, symptoms, and medical information influenced self-management decisions. Challenges included negotiating social occasions, acknowledgement of friends and family, structural barriers, and available resources. Most participants felt they had some personal control and responsibility in decision making. Health care providers, friends, and family were sources of advice. Attempts were made to integrate health care providers’ advice into day-to-day self-management. The aspects of Freire’s theory (dialogue, reflection, and praxis) were reflected in participants’ descriptions of self-management decisions. The findings of this study suggest the challenges of balancing self-management practices with everyday life should be considered when caring for Cuban Americans with diabetes. Culturally sensitive interventions that facilitate the integration of glucose monitoring, exercise, diet, and mediations need to be developed.Item Decision rules and decision consequence in group decision-making.(Texas Tech University, 1975-05) Klopfer, Frederick Julius.Item A decision support system for rapid evaluation and selection of engineered equipment suppliers(2009-08) Azambuja, Marcelo Menna Barreto; O'Brien, William J.Procurement’s role in engineering and construction is changing. Procurement is evolving into a far more strategic discipline. Major equipment procurement in particular ties up a large proportion of construction cost, has long lead time, and is usually associated with the acquisition of complex or specialized technology. Selection of suppliers is a complex process which requires the evaluation of several suppliers and project targets. This analysis is usually performed manually, it is time consuming, and certain tradeoffs may be overlooked. This research advances state of the art to aid the commercial evaluation and selection of engineered equipment suppliers in the early stages of capital projects. A decision support system was developed in cooperation with several leading engineering-procurement-construction (EPC) and owner firms within industrial construction. The system integrates firms’ market and supplier performance data with a decision aid method to support rapid tradeoff analysis and evaluation of sourcing alternatives in the early stages of capital projects. The tool has been developed in Visual C#, in the form of simple and intuitive forms, with Microsoft Access as the back-end database. A supplier selection module uses the Aspiration Interactive Method (AIM) for providing rapid tradeoff analysis and points how each supplier is ranked in relation to the expected procurement targets. The system also includes a module for schedule analysis of the preferred supplier. Managers first need to assess unique project and supplier’s characteristics to estimate most likely durations. These durations are used to run a PERT analysis and provide initial feedback on probability of equipment delivery success. Therefore, managers are able to check whether their procurement master schedule milestones are feasible or not. Two actual selection cases were used to validate system’s usefulness, completeness, and deployability. According to experienced managers, this tool brings intelligence to the traditional selection process. The ability to quickly generate what-if scenarios and rapidly perform tradeoff analysis based on real data improves the quality of decision making, and supports commercial assessment and recommendation of suppliers in the early phases of capital projects.Item Decision thresholds : cognitive limitations in sequential probabilistic decision making(2008-12) Eastman, Kyler Maxwell; Huk, Alexander; Stankiewicz, Brain J.Psychologists have long appreciated that many real-world decisions require a balance of expediency and accuracy in gathering evidence. Often the best decisions are made when there is some lingering uncertainty. But how much? Depending on the situation, choosing the right amount of evidence can often be a fine line between making a rash decision and being indecisive. Psychologists have been reluctant to pursue studying peoples' abilities to judge the correct "threshold" for probabilistic decisions. There are two reasons for this: First, the question of a decision threshold, or "when should I stop gathering evidence?" is confounded by the larger issue of how subjects choose and integrate that evidence. Subjects may have a decision threshold that is consistently sub-optimal with respect to a model that does not consider cognitive constraints. However, subjects may actually be choosing the right amount of information given their own cognitive limitations. Second, it has been shown that people often use specific heuristics in making probabilistic decisions. In this case, defining a decision threshold would be largely dependent on the heuristic and task, thus preventing a study of decision thresholds that is widely applicable. The research presented here addresses both of these concerns. I defined a task where the ideal decision threshold is clearly defined, requiring some evidence, but not an exhaustive search. Furthermore, this threshold can be precisely manipulated by changes in the reward structure. Although it is possible to use a "sufficing" or sub-optimal heuristic, subjects are given a significant financial incentive to fully integrate as much evidence as possible. Lastly, and most importantly, a general model of people's cognitive limitations is applied to the traditional normative model. This enhancement allows a more refined study of humans' ability to place their decision threshold according to environmental conditions.Item Decision-making among marital couples(Texas Tech University, 1976-05) Murphy, Timothy PatrickNot availableItem Differences in formal reasoning in terms of frontal lobe functioning(Texas Tech University, 1997-12) Taylor, Curtis ScottModem research in Neo-Piagetian theory has provided new interpretations of classical Piagetian concepts and developmental changes. Specifically, full cognitive development in adulthood does not appear to be as universal as may have earlier been believed. Some mature adults do not appear to develop the full range of cognitive complexity seen with formal and post-formal operational thought. The purpose of this dissertation is to explore differences between adults who do and do not show formal operational thought (as measured by the Logical Reasoning Test developed by Bumey in 1974). It was originally hypothesized that these groups would show significant differences in terms of frontal lobe performance on neuropsychological assessment tasks, as well as significant differences on a working-memory span task. Specifically, it was predicted that the formal operational adults would show superior performance on the neuropsychological battery, as well as larger working memory spans. Data collection and analysis has confirmed some, but not all of the author's hypotheses. Analysis using a series of multiple regression models has yielded valuable information regarding the Logical Reasoning Test, and has suggested future research possibilities.Item Dissatisfied by design: the evolution of discontent(2006) Hill, Sarah Elizabeth; Buss, David M.The following will explore multiple evolutionary psychological hypotheses, all of which bear on the nature of human satisfaction. I first address human decision-making across multiple domains of resource competition, hypothesizing that preferences for goods in some domains are not judged according to absolute amounts of resource holdings, but rather on how much one has compared to others —a positional bias. Studies 1 and 2 will explore the positional bias and how it affects men’s and women’s decision-making behaviors. I will then address one of the human motivational systems likely involved in facilitating behavior that is consistent with the positional bias: the emotion of envy. Studies 3, 4, and 5 will explore sex differences in men’s and women’s envy experiences and the role played by envy in social memory. The current studies present new data that provide novel insights into the nature of satisfaction, well-being, and important decision-making processes that guide human social behavior in a variety of domains.Item Effect of cue type on situation awareness(Texas Tech University, 1996-12) Jones, Debra GipsonSituation Awareness (SA) is a vital element of decision making in dynamic environments. As such, SA errors can impede and degrade decision making performance. One particularly troublesome SA error is the representational error which occurs when the wrong mental model is used to interpret information (resulting in an inaccurate understanding of the situation), when in fact it should provide a cue that the wrong mental model is in effect. This dissertation investigates what characteristics of information are likely to cause a person to adjust a mental model rather than falling prey to a representational error. Since the literature on this issue is sparse, findings from schema literature were used as a starting point for investigating this question. From the schema Iherature, two hypotheses were formulated involving the effect of cues on SA: (1) schema bizarre information will impact SA more than schema irrelevant information, and (2) schema unexpected information will impact SA more than the absence of schema expected information. A high fidelity simulation of an air traffic control task was used to test these hypotheses. Certain misinformation was provided to the controllers and then cues to this error were provided in the form of schema bizarre cues or irrelevant cues, schema unexpected cues or absence of expected cues. The controllers were expected to ascertain from these cues that the current mental model was not adequate to account for the cue (thus, the cue signified that an error had been committed) and that the error needed correcting. If the significance of the information was comprehended, an overt action was required.Item The effects of payoffs and feedback on the disambiguation of relative clauses(2014-12) Chacartegui Quetglas, Luis; Bannard, ColinThis dissertation investigates two facts about language processing. The Good Enough Approach claims that language users do not form a fully detailed representation of the input unless the task at hand requires it. On the other hand it has been shown that language users display internal preferences when they are faced with ambiguous input, as to what direction disambiguation should take. It has been proposed that these preferences are based on previous experience with similar inputs. This thesis investigates these two issues using tools from the fields of decision making and reinforcement learning. Specifically feedback and payoffs associated with sentence interpretations are manipulated to explore reading behavior, understood as a process of information seeking, and disambiguation choices. In four eye-tracking-reading experiments, the experimental stimuli are sentences containing a relative clause attachment ambiguity. Experiment 1 investigates whether the combination of the degree of ambiguity of a sentence and the possible payoffs, affect people’s reading times for the potentially ambiguous parts of a sentence, as well as their disambiguation choices. Experiment 2 investigates the role of feedback in such processes, a combination related to expected utility maximization. Experiment 3 studies how participants learn from feedback under risky or non-risky conditions. The last experiment investigates whether participants adjust their responses to evidence provided by feedback even overriding their internal initial bias towards a default response.