Browsing by Subject "Climate Change"
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Item An Integrated Study of Avian Influenza Impacts and Associated Climate Change Issues(2012-07-16) Mu, JianhongThis dissertation examines issues related to avian influenza (AI) disease. This is done via three essays that individually examine: (1) the impacts of climate change on the probability and expected numbers of AI outbreaks and associated economic loss; (2) the effects that media coverage of AI outbreaks has on meat demand in the United States, and (3) the potential effectiveness of AI mitigation strategies on poultry production and welfare under a simulated AI outbreak in United States. The climate change and spread of AI outbreaks study finds that the probability and expected number of AI outbreaks increases as climate change proceeds. Particularly, past climate change has contributed to the current spread of AI disease by 11% and the future climate change will increase this spread by another 12%. Moreover, the underreporting probability of AI outbreaks is also examined and results show that the underreporting probability is much higher in countries with lower gross domestic production level, larger export of poultry products and more numbers of AI confirmed human deaths. Therefore, disease prevention and control plans should focus on these economically poor and climatically changed regions. AI outbreak information has significant effects on meat demand in the United States. In particular, impacts of overseas AI human deaths on meat demand equal 0.02% for beef, -0.005% for pork, and -0.01% for chicken for sample when there was no AI occurred in the United States, while it has smaller impacts on meat expenditure when using the whole sample. In addition, human deaths due to AI disease will increase beef demand and decrease that for pork and chicken. However, AI media coverage in short-run has insignificant effect on meat demand, which suggests that consumers are more cautious when cases occur within the United States as opposed to international cases. In the study on the effects and welfare implications of AI mitigation strategies, results find that vaccination strategy is welfare decreasing under most cases of demand shocks but is desirable in some regions when both domestic and excess demand decrease. Under the assumption of one AI outbreak in the United States, the associated mitigation costs because of past climate change are relatively small.Item Case Studies on the Effects of Climate Change on Water, Livestock and Hurricanes(2014-07-25) Yu, Chin-HsienThis dissertation investigates the agricultural impacts of climate change in three ways addressing water implications of mitigation strategies, feedlot livestock productivity vulnerability induced by climate change and dust and welfare effects of altered tropical storm frequency and intensity. Even though mitigation alleviates GHG emissions and ultimate climate change, it also has externalities and can alter water quantity and quality. The first essay focuses on examining the water quality and quantity effects of mitigation strategies. This is done using quantile regression and sector modeling. The quantile regression result examined land use change and showed that an increase in grassland significantly decreases water yield with changes in forest land having mixed effects. In the sector modeling we find that water quality is degraded under most mitigation alternatives when carbon prices are low but is improved with higher carbon prices. Also water quantity slightly increases under lower carbon prices but significantly decreases under higher carbon prices. The second essay examines the effects of climate change and dust on feedlot cattle performance plus the benefits of dust control adaption. A linear panel data model is used to see the relationship between climate and dust with cattle sale weight. We find that hotter temperatures and increased dust levels generally worsen cattle live sale weight. Dynamic programming is then used to estimate the benefits of dust control. The results show that dust control activity is beneficial. Additionally, climate change is found to be damaging and a factor that reduces dust control benefits. The last essay applies a demand model to investigate the economic consequences of tropical storm strikes on the vegetable market in Taiwan. Findings are that tropical storm strikes raise vegetable prices and in turn cause consumer loss and producer gain. Also higher intensity storms generally have larger impacts than lower intensity storms. Finally possible climate change induced intensified tropical storms or increased storm frequencies were found to result in a more severe welfare loss.Item Communicating Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: Opportunities and Constraints across Media(2011-10-21) Feldpausch-Parker, Andrea MarieIn 2003, the U.S. Department of Energy created regional joint governmentindustry partnerships as part of a larger incentive to develop carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies to address the issue of climate change. As part of their missions, DOE and their partners are responsible for creating and distributing public outreach and education materials discussing climate change and CCS technologies. In this dissertation, I sought to evaluate processes for communicating CCS to the public by examining different pathways including direct communication through DOE and regional partnership websites (Chapter I), news media from states with energy projects proposed or underway (Chapter II), and alternative strategies for communication such as an online educational game for youth (Chapter IV). My study also included focus groups in communities where CCS technologies have been piloted to determine public knowledge and acceptance of CCS (Chapter III). In Chapter I, a critique of DOE and partnership websites, I found authority to be a dominant theme throughout DOE and partnership website content, often incorporating technical jargon beyond laymen understanding and, in many cases, targeting industry audiences over the intended public. In Chapter II, I analyzed newspaper articles from the states of Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana and Texas using Luhmann?s social theory and the SPEED framework to determine how CCS has been framed by the media. Findings indicated that political, legal, economic and technical frames dominated, with emphasis on benefits, rather than risks of adoption. I also found that CCS reporting increased dramatically as pilot projects started to come on line. In my study of community acceptance of CCS in the American Southwest, Chapter III, I found that participants focused their conversations on industry and government knowledge, risks and unknowns of CCS and processes for decision-making. These topics also provided an impetus for caution. Skepticism and distrust of government entities and corporations influenced participant willingness to accept storage risks to mitigate for CO2 emissions. After open discussion of pros and cons associated with the technology, however, participants were more willing to consider CCS as an option, indicating a need to talk through the issue and to come to their own conclusions. Finally, in focus groups used to evaluate of an online game titled The Adventures of Carbon Bond, I found that it was difficult for participants to discuss environmental issues with students that are viewed as contentious (i.e. climate change and CCS), but that gaming was a valuable tool for addressing such sensitive subjects. Overall, these four chapters demonstrate that communication of CCS has only reached portions of the public and has not consistently connected with those potentially impacted by the technology. They also show that CCS must overcome numerous barriers to deployment, foremost of which is public acceptance.Item Economic investigation of discount factors for agricultural greenhouse gas emission offsets(Texas A&M University, 2005-08-29) Kim, Man-KeunThis dissertation analyzes the basis for and magnitudes of discount factors based on the characteristics of greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) offsets that are applied to the GHGE reduction projects, concentrating on agricultural projects. Theoretical approaches to discount factors, estimation and incorporation of discount factors procedures are developed. Discount factors would be imposed by credit purchasers due to noncompliance with regulatory program of the credits with GHG program including consideration of shortfall penalties and limited durations. Discount factors are proposed for (i) additionality, (ii) leakage, (iii) permanence, and (iv) uncertainty. Additionality arise when the region where an AO project is being proposed would have substantial adoption of the AO practice in the absence of GHG programs (business as usual GHGE offset). Leakage arises when the effect of a program is offset by an induced increase in economic activity and accompanying emissions elsewhere. The leakage effect depends on demand and supply elasticities. Permanence reflects the saturation and volatility characteristics of carbon sequestration. Carbon is stored in a volatile form and can be released quickly to the atmosphere when an AO practice is discontinued. The permanence discount depends on the project design including practice continuation after the program and the dynamic rate of offset. Also, consideration of multiple offsets is important. Uncertainty arises due to the stochastic nature of project quantity. The uncertainty discount tends to be smaller the larger the size of the offset contract due to aggregation over space and time. The magnitude of these discounts is investigated in Southeast Texas rice discontinuation study. The additionality and the leakage discounts are found to play an important role in case of rice lands conversion to other crops but less so for pasture conversions and yet less for forest conversions. The permanence discount is important when converting to other crops and short rotation forestry. When all discounts are considered, rice lands conversion to forest yields claimable credits amounting to 52.8% ~ 77.5% of the total offset. When converting rice lands to pasture, the claimable credits 45.1% ~ 64.2%, while a conversion of rice lands to other crops yields claimable credits 38.9% ~ 40.4%.Item Effect of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Changes on Tropical Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System(2010-01-14) Wan, XiuquanThe objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes on tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system via oceanic and atmospheric processes. A suite of numerical simulations have been conducted and the results show that both oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes induced by AMOC changes can have a profound impact on tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) conditions, but their dominance varies in different parts of the tropical oceans. The oceanic process has a dominant control on SST and SSS response to AMOC changes in the South Tropical Atlantic, while the atmospheric teleconnection is mainly responsible for SST and SSS changes over the North Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans during the period of reduced AMOC. The finding has significant implication for the interpretation of the paleotemperature reconstructions over the southern Caribbean and the western Tropical Atlantic regions during the Younger Dryas. It suggests that the strong spatial inhomogeneity of the SST change revealed by the proxy records in these regions may be attributed to the competing oceanic and atmospheric processes that dominate the SST response. Similar mechanisms may also explain the reconstructed paleo-salinity change in the tropical Atlantic, which shows a basin-wide increase in SSS during the Younger Dryas, according to recent paleo climate studies. Finally, we show that atmospheric teleconnection induced by the surface cooling of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific in response to a weakened AMOC, is a leading physical mechanism that dictates the behavior of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to AMOC changes. However, depending on its origin, the atmospheric teleconnection can affect ENSO variability in different ways. The atmospheric process associated with the North Atlantic cooling tends to enhance El Nino occurrence with a deepened mean thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific, whereas the atmospheric process associated with the North Pacific cooling tends to produce more La Nina events with a reduced mean thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific. Preliminary analysis suggests that the change in ENSO characteristics is associated with the change in internal atmospheric variability caused by the surface cooling in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Complex nature of the underlying dynamics concerning the effect of the AMOC on ENSO calls for further investigation into this problem.Item El Ni?o Southern Oscillation Variability from 1871-2008(2012-02-14) Ray, SulagnaThe variation of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from the mid-nineteenth century until the beginning of the twenty-first century is explored using an ocean reanalysis. Decadal variability and trends in the strength, frequency, duration, and propagation direction of ENSO events is investigated. The hypothesis that there are different types of ENSO and that the location of ENSO is shifting to the west Pacific is also studied. The study uses the latest version of an ocean reanalysis, called SODA 2.2.4 (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation), which covers the period from 1871 through 2008. The reanalysis uses an eddy-permitting resolution model of the ocean forced with boundary conditions available from an atmospheric reanalysis that covers the same period. SODA 2.2.4 assimilates all available hydrographic and surface marine observations of temperature and salinity to produce a "best estimate" of the ocean state in terms of temperature, current, salinity, and sea surface height. A new index based on the first moment of anomalous sea surface temperature over the equatorial Pacific is used to describe the location and strength of warm and cold events. The results show strong decadal variability in the strength of El Nino events but little trend during the period of 1871-2008. The strength of La Nina events has neither prominent decadal variation nor a trend. The index also documents changes in frequency, duration, and location of ENSO events. The study shows that the frequency of El Nino varies considerably over the record. Given the large variance in the period of ENSO it is difficult to reliably determine if there has been a change in the period of El Nino events. The location of warming during El Nino can be described by a normal distribution centered at about 140 degrees W. The strength and frequency of ENSO events have very little trend indicating negligible impact from global warming.Item Essays in Financial Econometric Investigations of Farmland Valuations(2013-05-20) Xu, JinThis dissertation consists of three essays wherein tools of financial econometrics are used to study the three aspects of farmland valuation puzzle: short-term boom-bust cycles, overpricing of farmland, and inconclusive effects of direct government payments. Essay I addresses the causes of unexplained short-term boom-bust cycles in farmland values in a dynamic land pricing model (DLPM). The analysis finds that gross return rate of farmland asset decreases as the farmland asset level increases, and that the diminishing return function of farmland asset contributes to the boom-bust cycles in farmland values. Furthermore, it is mathematically proved that land values are potentially unstable under diminishing return functions. We also find that intertemporal elasticity of substitution, risk aversion, and transaction costs are important determinants of farmland asset values. Essay II examines the apparent overpricing of farmland by decomposing the forecast error variance of farmland prices into forward looking and backward looking components. The analysis finds that in the short run, the forward looking Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) portion of the forecast errors are significantly higher in a boom or bust stage than in a stable stage. This shows that the farmland market absorbs economic information in a discriminative manner according to the stability of the market, and the market (and actors therein) responds to new information gradually as suggested by the theory. This helps to explain the overpricing of farmland, but this explanation works primarily in the short run. Finally, essay III investigates the duel effects of direct government payments and climate change on farmland values. This study uses a smooth coefficient semi-parametric panel data model. The analysis finds that land valuation is affected by climate change and government payments, both through discounted revenues and through effects on the risk aversion of land owners. This essay shows that including heterogeneous risk aversion is an efficient way to mitigate the impacts of misspecifications in a DLPM, and that precipitation is a good explanatory variable. In particular, precipitation affects land values in a bimodal manner, indicating that farmland prices could have multiple peaks in precipitation due to adaption through crop selection and technology alternation.Item Essays on Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change and Ethanol Market Integration in the U.S.(2012-12-05) Aisabokhae, Ruth 1980-Climate factors like precipitation and temperature, being closely intertwined with agriculture, make a changing climate a big concern for the entire human race and its basic survival. Adaptation to climate is a long-running characteristic of agriculture evidenced by the varying types and forms of agricultural enterprises associated with differing climatic conditions. Nevertheless climate change poses a substantial, additional adaptation challenge for agriculture. Mitigation encompasses efforts to reduce the current and future extent of climate change. Biofuels production, for instance, expands agriculture?s role in climate change mitigation. This dissertation encompasses adaptation and mitigation strategies as a response to climate change in the U.S. by examining comprehensively scientific findings on agricultural adaptation to climate change; developing information on the costs and benefits of select adaptations to examine what adaptations are most desirable, for which society can further devote its resources; and studying how ethanol prices are interrelated across, and transmitted within the U.S., and the markets that play an important role in these dynamics. Quantitative analysis using the Forestry and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) shows adaptation to be highly beneficial to agriculture. On-farm varietal and other adaptations contributions outweigh a mix shift northwards significantly, implying progressive technical change and significant returns to adaptation research and investment focused on farm management and varietal adaptations could be quite beneficial over time. Northward shift of corn-acre weighted centroids observed indicates that substantial production potential may shift across regions with the possibility of less production in the South, and more in the North, and thereby, potential redistribution of income. Time series techniques employed to study ethanol price dynamics show that the markets studied are co-integrated and strongly related, with the observable high levels of interaction between all nine cities. Information is transmitted rapidly between these markets. Price seems to be discovered (where shocks originate from) in regions of high demand and perhaps shortages, like Los Angeles and Chicago (metropolitan population centers). The Maximum Likelihood approach following Spiller and Huang?s model however shows cities may not belong to the same economic market and the possibility of arbitrage does not exist between all markets.Item Essays on Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Sector in the U.S.(2012-10-19) Park, JiyunThis dissertation investigates: (1) the climate change effects on the mean and higher order moments of crop yield distributions; (2) the effects of irrigation with and without its interactive terms with climate variables; (3) the climate effects on crop mix and climate change adaptation. The first essay explores how the climate change impacts the crop yield distribution. Using the flexible moment based approach, this study infers that external climate factors influence not only mean crop yield and variability, but also its higher order moments, skewness and kurtosis. The climate effects on each moment vary by crops. The second essay examines the irrigation effects on the mean crop yield. While the irrigation effects estimated from the model with irrigation dummy are constant regardless of climate conditions, the irrigation effects estimated from the model with irrigation dummy and interactive variables between irrigation and climate are affected by external climate factors. This study shows that as temperature increases, the irrigation effects are decreased and irrigation reduces damages from extreme temperature conditions. Precipitation and PDSI effects are also diminished under irrigation. The third essay explores the effects of climate on crop producers' choice. Our findings point out that the climate factors have significant impacts on crop choice and future climate change will alter the crop mix. Under the projected climate change of increasing temperature and precipitation, wheat and soybeans cropland will be switched to upland cotton. The major producing locations of upland cotton, rice, and soybeans will be shifted to the north. However, most of corn will be still cultivated in the Corn Belt and changes in acreage planted will not be significant.Item Essays on the Effect of Climate Change over Agriculture and Forestry(2010-07-14) Villavicencio Cordova, Xavier A.In this dissertation, I study the effects of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity and crop yields and their variability. In addition, an examination was conducted on the value of select climate change adaptation strategies in forestry. Across the study, the climate change scenarios analyzed were based on the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Climate change impacts on the returns to research investments were examined extending the work of Huffman and Evenson (2006), incorporating climatic effects. The conjecture is that the rate of return of agricultural research is falling due to altered resource allocations and unfavorable weather conditions, arising from the early onset of climate change. This work was done using a panel model of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the forty-eight contiguous states over 1970?1999. Climatic variables such as temperature and amount and intensity of precipitation were added into the model. The main results are (1) climate change affects research productivity, varying by region; (2) this effect is generally negative; (3) additional investments are needed to achieve pre-climate change TFP rates of growth; and (4) the predicted investment increases are on the order of 18%. The second inquiry involved the impact of historical climatic conditions on the statistical distributions of crop yields through mean and variability. This was done statistically, using historical yields for several crops in the US, and climate variables, with annual observations from 1960 to 2007. The estimation shows that climate change is having an effect on the first two moments of the distribution, concluding that crop yield distributions are not stationary. The implication is that risk analysis must consider means and volatility measures that depend on future climatic conditions. The analysis shows that future mean yields will increase, but volatility will also be greater for the studied crops. These results have strong implication for future crop insurance decisions. Finally, an examination was done on the value of select forestry adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. This work is motivated by the known fact that forestry sector is already heavily adapted to changing climatic conditions. Using the Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model for the United States (FASOM), I found that rotation age is the most effective adaptation strategy being worth about 60 billion dollars, while changes in species and management intensity are worth about 1.5 billion, and land use change between forestry to agriculture is worth about 200,000.Item Extratropical Lapse Rates in Very Hot Climates(2013-07-02) Zamora, Ryan AlexanderThe interplay between convective processes and the stabilizing effects of largescale systems remains debated, especially for warmer climates. We study sets of simulations of past and present climates in which carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations vary over a wide range: from pre-industrial era levels of 280 ppm to an exceedingly high value of 8960 ppm. This allows us to assess the importance of convective processes relative to middle latitude thermal stratification and changes to the general circulation in progressively warmer climate states. As a tool to assess the stability of the atmosphere, we calculate a thermodynamic variable called saturation potential vorticity (P*), which has the property of being identically zero wherever lapse rates are neutral with respect to moist convection, and large where lapse rates are stable. Using P* allows us to examine convective motions arising from both gravitational accelerations as well as symmetric instabilities. We assess the ability of current models (of varying spectral resolutions) in resolving conditions unstable to slantwise convection. We show that the coarse resolution reanalysis data captures instances of observed slantwise convection. Our results show examples of vertically stable lapse rates, while being conditionally unstable along slanted angular momentum surfaces. This suggests the need for model parameterizations of convection to include instabilities arising from symmetric displacements. Tropical regions are neutral with respect to moist convection while higher latitudes most often have stable lapse rates, especially during the winter months. In the warmer climate simulations, the frequency of convectively neutral air masses increases in both middle latitude and polar regions, especially during the summer months. These simulations also show expansion of the Hadley cell and shifting of middle latitude storm tracks. Using Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) as a tool to assess the upper bound of hurricane strength, we show sustainment of intense tropical cyclones in regions they cannot in our present climate.Item Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Glaciers and Runoff Using SWAT(2014-08-08) Omani, NinaA modified incorporated snow algorithm in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to consider spatial variation of associated snow parameters by elevation band for flow simulation of five mountainous river basins with different climatic conditions including the Narayani (Nepal), Vakhsh (Central Asia), Rhone (Switzerland), Mendoza (Central Andes, Argentina), and Central Dry Andes (Chile) with total area of 85,000 km^(2). The results by modified snow algorithm implied slight to noticeable improvement in simulation of flow cycles and volume depend on the percentage of glacier area and climatic type of a subbasin. The ability of model in simulation of glacier mass balance and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) then was evaluated for three reference glaciers and their neighboring glacier ranges across the Europe and central Asia. The modified model successfully simulated the annual glacier loss, mass balance profile and annual ELAs with light calibration efforts and limited data. The results revealed that even very good result in monthly runoff simulation alone does not imply the consistency between simulated and measured mass balances. Calibrating the model versus flow data in combination with data of glaciers considerably reduced the model parameterization uncertainty and enhanced mass balance simulation accuracy. To assess the range of future climate change impacts on the glacier runoff, we used maximum, minimum air temperature and precipitation projections under two RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate change scenarios and six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) models. Simulations of mean annual and monthly runoff, high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff and flow duration curves (FDCs) under baseline (1979?2008) and climate change scenarios are presented for all river basins. The variation of ELA related to a moderate climate change scenario then was predicted for a test study area. Therefore, the objectives of this study are: 1. Evaluating SWAT?s snow hydrologic component in glaciered basins, 2. Improvement of SWAT snow/ice melt processing, 3. Extending the applied method to macro-scale river basins, 4. Assessing the effect of future climate change on the streamflow volume and seasonal variability with focusing on glaciered areas, 5. Investigating that the global mountainous glaciers will be vanished by 2100.Item Impact of Climate Change on Long Term Nuclear Power Plant Operation(2010-10-12) Redwine, Adam B.The present work examines the potential impact of changes in climatic conditions on the long-term functioning of nuclear power plants. Nuclear power plants are potentially susceptible to changes both in acute risks, such as severe storm events, and chronic risks, such as detrimental changes in the thermodynamics of plant operation. Extending plant lifetimes well beyond the lengths of operation for which they were originally designed suggests the necessity of studying the impacts such changes might have. Potential threats are examined in light of earlier work performed by Business Continuity Consulting on commission for Enteritgy Nuclear. The fourteen risk drivers identified in that work as threats warranting additional investigation are studied individually, and their relevance and likely impact extrapolated for regions covered by the ten selected sites under examination. Thermodynamic eff ects are simulated with a plant analysis program known as PEPSE (Performance Evaluation of Plant Systems Efficiencies), with which a broad range of modeled environmental and plant conditions are analyzed for potential impacts to plant functioning. Of the fourteen climatic risk drivers considered, changes in drought and ood severity and frequency resulting from climate change were determined to be the most likely detriments to plant operations. Precipitation gures indicate that plants located in the Midwest are particularly susceptible to future drought conditions while those in the Northeast are likely to experience more frequent ooding. Many of the risk drivers specifi ed by the earlier work were only cursorily examined in light of the complex nature of these phenomena and lack of well defi ned correlation to climate change. Other risks were analyzed using the gathered data, but were determined not to pose signi ficant threats to plant operations. In addition to large scale climatic e ffects, changes related to coolant uid temperature rise and plant component efficiency were examined to qualify their e ect on the thermodynamics of the model plant. Plant operating conditions were modeled for a wide range of conditions related to theoretical environmental changes. These examinations showed negligibly small impacts caused by increased coolant water temperature and moderate impact caused by changes in air humidity.Item Integrated Drought Modeling For Texas Under Climate Change Impact With Implications For Water Resources Planning(2014-12-02) Rajsekhar, DeepthiDrought is a deficiency in the hydro climatic variable of interest that is experienced for an extended period of time. In many parts of the world, it is a normal, recurring feature of climate and is therefore inevitable. Adequate monitoring and planning is required for effective mitigation of droughts. The study area for this research is Texas, which has been a consistently drought prone state. There has been at least one serious drought in one part of the state or the other during every decade of the twentieth century. This trend is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effect of global warming and climate change. Taking into account the importance of water management under conditions of extreme climate, this study focuses on enhancing various aspects of drought modeling. The major goals include the development of an efficient means to quantify multiple physical forms of drought, formulation of scientifically robust drought planning regions, integrated multivariate hazard and vulnerability assessment under climate change impact, understanding the causal factors that might trigger a drought event in future, and development of an effective interface to convey the research results to decision makers. These goals were designed to bridge the gaps existing in the current drought research, which even though substantial, still fails to address some of the issues. The goals are addressed by developing a new multivariate drought index, use of copula to build the dependence structure of drought properties and subsequent plotting of multivariate risk maps, development of Drought Hazard Index (DHI) and Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) for integrated risk analysis under climate change impact, and use of Directional Information Transfer (DIT) for grouping of homogeneous drought regions. A novel transfer entropy approach is adopted to analyze the cause-effect relationship between various hydro-climatic variables and drought properties, thus identifying the prominent future drought triggers. Finally, an efficient drought Decision Support System (DSS) is developed to convey the research results to decision makers through a number of statistical techniques and effective visualization. Ultimately, the study aims at developing a comprehensive framework for better understanding of droughts in Texas which will help decision makers to formulate a more effective adaptation and mitigation strategy in future.Item The Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Property Damages, and Population Affected(2010-07-14) Frey, Ashley E.Flooding inundation during hurricanes has been very costly and dangerous. However, the impact of climate change on hurricane flooding is not well understood at present. As sea surface temperatures increase, it is expected that hurricane intensity will increase and sea levels will rise. It is further hypothesized that climate change will increase hurricane flooding inundation, which would increase property damages and adversely affect a greater number of people. This thesis presents a case study of Corpus Christi, Texas, which analyzes the impact of climate change on hurricane flooding. Sea level rise projections and intensification of historical hurricanes were considered in this study. Storm surges were determined with the ADCIRC numerical model, while GIS was used to estimate area flooded, property damages, and population affected. Flooding inundation, property damages, and number of people affected by flooding increases as the intensity of the hurricane increases. As hurricane intensity increases and sea levels rise, the depth of flooding also increases dramatically. Based on two historical hurricanes and one shifted historical hurricane, on average the inundated area increases about 11 km2 per degree Celsius of sea surface temperature rise, the property damages increase by about $110 million per degree Celsius of sea surface temperature rise, and the number of people affected by flooding inundation increases by about 4,900 per degree Celsius of sea surface temperature rise. These results indicate that it may become necessary to consider the effects of climate change when building future coastal communities and adapting the protection of existing communities.Item Three Essays on Prequential Analysis, Climate Change, and Mexican Agriculture(2013-05-15) Mendez Ramos, FabianThis dissertation addresses: 1) the reliability of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts generated by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of Columbia University; 2) estimation of parameters of Mexican crop demand; and 3) the potential impacts of climate change on Mexican agriculture. The IRI ENSO forecasts were evaluated using prequential analysis, with calibration and scoring rules. Calibration tests and the Yates? decomposition measures of the Brier score suggest that the IRI ENSO forecasts are improving in reliability and skill, showing a learning by doing behavior, i.e., these IRI ENSO forecasts show improved ability to predict the ENSO phases that really happen. In terms of estimation of the parameters of Mexican crop demand, an LA/AIDS model was used but the results were not very satisfactory with statistical tests rejecting homogeneity and symmetry. Furthermore, the estimated uncompensated price and income elasticities were found to be located in the tail regions of the Monte Carlo simulated density functions, showing poor validation of the initial estimates under similar economic (price and consumption) circumstances. Finally, in terms of the potential impacts that climate change has on Mexican agriculture, two 2050 climate change scenarios were examined. The central result indicates that Mexico benefits from climate change under the IPCC ensemble results for the B1 scenario and would experience welfare losses under the ensemble results for the A2 scenario. Moreover, dryland hectareage would decrease and would be replaced by irrigated areas. Finally, producer?s net income was found to decrease at the national level under both climate change scenarios. The results were generated using a mathematical programming sector model that was updated for the study.Item Water Scarcity, Climate Change, and Water Quality: Three Economic Essays(2010-07-14) Cai, YongxiaThis dissertation is composed of three essays investigating three aspects of future water issues. The first essay focuses on an examination of water scarcity issues caused by rapid population growth and economic development in Texas. The second essay examines water scarcity under climate change scenarios in Texas. The third essay discusses arsenic-related water quality issues in the drinking water. An integrated economic, hydrological, and environmental model is developed for the first two essays by implicitly incorporating uncertainty about future climate, water demand from all types of water use, a spatial river flow relationship, interaction between ground and surface water, institutional regulations, and the possibilities of inter-basin water transfers (IBTs). In studying water scarcity under economic growth and population growth, we find that while some cities and counties have sufficient water, there are some other cities and counties (especially Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin) facing different degrees of water scarcity problems. In studying the climate change impact, four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESs) yield consistent results. Water scarcity becomes even more severe for cities. Texas realizes slight gains in earlier periods and a net loss beginning in 2060. This study finds that twelve IBTs, if there is no climate change, and fourteen IBTs, under the climate change scenario, will be economically feasible in 2060. These IBTs can not only greatly reduce water scarcity, but also create new growth opportunity for Houston. Water is transferred from in-stream flow in source basins. There is no significant impact on other sectors except in-stream flow and water flow out to bay. In the third essay, a two-stage structural model is developed to model household risk-averting behavior with respect to arsenic-related mortality risk in the drinking water. The empirical results suggest that risk perceptions for the parents and children are important in the decision of how much to spend on water treatment, but not in whether or not to treat water. Parents in our sample displayed mixed altruism. The information generated by this dissertation can help state agencies to manage water resources and to improve water-related human health, especially health for children, more effectively and more efficiently.