Browsing by Subject "CGE"
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Item Effects of Biofuel Policies on World Food Insecurity -- A CGE Analysis(2012-02-14) Lu, JiaminThe food vs. fuel debate has heated up since the 2008 global food crisis when major crop prices dramatically increased. Heavily subsidized biofuel production was blamed for diverting food crops from food production and diverting resources from food and feed production, triggering a food crisis globally and leading to increases in the world food insecure population. Few studies have quantified the effects of biofuel policies on world food prices and world food insecurity. This study added the Brazil and China's biofuel sectors to an existing global trade CGE model, and applies the measurement of food insecurity as developed by FAO. Alternative scenarios were food insecurity. Results are examined with focus on (1) effects on domestic biofuel productions, (2) change in food commodity productions and trade, (3) change in land use and land rents, and (4) change in regional undernourished populations. Results indicated that biofuel expansion is not cost competitive to traditional fossil fuel. Without any policy incentives, huge expansion of biofuel production is not likely under current technology. The conventional biofuel mandates in U.S., Brazil and China lead to increases in world food insecurity, while the advanced biofuel mandate in U.S. has the opposite effect. Subsidies to biofuels production help to lessen the increase in world food insecurity that is caused by increases in conventional biofuel production. Additionally, the effects from U.S. biofuel policies are smaller but more widespread than the effects from Brazil or China's biofuel policies. Overall, the long term effects of biofuel production expansion on world food insecurity are much smaller than expected.Item The role of US agricultural and forest activities in global climate change mitigation(2009-05-15) Zhu, EnIn 2005 the highest global surface temperature ever was recorded. A virtual consensus exists today among scientists that global warming is underway and that human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a significant cause. Possible mitigation of climate change through reduction of net GHG emissions has become a worldwide concern. Under the United Nation?s Framework convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol was formed in 1997 and required ratifying countries to co-operate in stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations. The protocol took effect on February 16, 2005. The mitigation cost for reducing GHG emissions for the US economy has been argued to be high particularly through the energy sector. Agriculture and Forestry (AF) can provide some low cost strategies to help with this mitigation principally through carbon sequestration but must be competitive with mitigation costs in the rest of the economy. A general equilibrium approach is used herein to evaluate the role of AF mitigation in an economy wide setting. The results show that the AF sectors have significant mitigation potential. Higher carbon prices lead to more sequestration, less emissions, reduced consumer and total welfare, improved environmental indicators and increased producer welfare. AF mitigation increases as the carbon price increase over time. In the earlier periods, while the carbon price is low, AF emissions and sink are quite small compared to the energy sector. As carbon prices increase over time, the AF sectors mitigate about 25% of the net emissions. This verifies McCarl et al's (2001) argument that the AF sectors ?may be very important in a world that requires time and technological investment to develop low-cost greenhouse gas emission offsets.? AF GHG emission mitigation is sensitive to saturation of sequestration sinks. This research finds that ignoring saturation characteristics leads to a severe overestimate of mitigation potential with estimates being inflated by as much as a factor of 6.