Browsing by Subject "Bidding Strategy"
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Item Project Bidding Strategy Considering Correlations between Bidders(2012-10-19) Kim, MinsooOne of the most important considerations in winning a competitive bid is the determination of an optimum strategy developed by predicting the competitor's most probable actions. There may be some common factors for different contractors in establishing their bid prices, such as references for cost estimating, construction materials, site conditions, or labor prices. Those dependencies from past bids can be used to improve the strategy to predict future bids. By identifying the interrelationships between bidders with statistical correlations, this study provides an overview of how correlations among bidders influence the bidders winning probability. With data available for over 7,000 Michigan Department of Transportation highway projects that can be used to calculate correlations between the different contractors, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate correlated random variables and the probability of winning from the results of the simulation. The primary focus of this paper outlines the use of conditional probability for predicting the probability of winning to establish a contractor's strategy for remaining bids with their estimated bid price and known information about competitors from past data. If a contractor estimated his/her bid price to be lower than his/her average bid, a higher probability of winning would be achieved with competitors who have a low correlation with the contractor. Conversely, the lower probability of winning decreases as the contractor bid with highly correlated contractors when their bid price is estimated to be higher than the average bid.Item Reverse Auction Bidding: Bidding Strategy Pattern of First Time Bidders(2012-02-14) Bedekar, Shreyas VinayakThe advancement of computer technology is playing an important role in almost all fields in the construction industry in the current era. It has become a tool for exchanging legal contract information, including bid data. In the traditional closed bidding system, the bidders were unaware of their competitors' bid quotes and had no opportunity available to make a counter an offer to the bid at a different level. However, in reverse auction bidding (RAB), contractors can track their competitors' bids and take the given opportunity to re-bid the projects at lower rates. Unlike traditional auctions, where buyers raise their purchasing prices to outbid competitors, reverse auctions permit buyers to purchase goods and services from suppliers who are encouraged to sell them at the lowest price. The benefit of the reverse auction bidding is either that the vendors are able to re-bid, or lower their bid multiple times. This is an example of transparent economic information. Van Vleet initiated the ongoing Reverse Auction Bidding study at Texas A&M University. Van Vleet had created a Microsoft Access database system and ASP web based user interface for RAB study. The methodology developed by van Vleet is still being used today, and this study has been extended into analyzing different personality types and the impact on the bidding system. In the previous studies conducted by different researchers in TAMU, the performance of participants in the RAB process along with their behavior are being observed with respect to their personality. Personality of each player is tested using the Keirsey Temperament Sorter (KTS) test. The previous study states that there appears to be a strong correlation between personality type and game performance. The first case study conducted by van Vleet involved five participants who had no prior experience in Reverse Auction Bidding. The number of participants has varied from three to ten participants. This research has been conducted on graduate students of the Construction Science Department of TAMU who have no prior experience in RAB. In continuation with the previous studies held in TAMU, the results show that there is an observable pattern in the bidding strategy of first time bidders while taking part in Reverse Auction Bidding.