Carvalho, Carlos Marinho, 1978-2013-12-092017-05-112013-12-092017-05-112013-05http://hdl.handle.net/2152/22587textSince arbitrage-free is a desirable theoretical feature in a healthy financial market, many efforts have been made to construct arbitrage-free models for yield curves. However, little attention is paid to review if such restriction will improve yield forecast. We evaluate the importance of arbitrage-free restriction on dynamic Nelson-Siegel term structure when forecasting yield curves. We find that it doesn’t help. We also compare these two Nelson-Siegel dynamic models with a benchmark dynamic model and show that Nelson-Siegel structure improve forecasts for long-maturity yields.electronicengCopyright is held by the author. Presentation of this material on the Libraries' web site by University Libraries, The University of Texas at Austin was made possible under a limited license grant from the author who has retained all copyrights in the works.Nelson-Siegel modelArbitrage freeYield curveThesis