The effect of decision aids on decision confidence and decision success: an empirical investigation

Abstract

This research investigates the effect of decision aids on decision confidence and the decision outcome. A comprehensive conceptual model of the role of decision aids on decision confidence and decision success was developed combining relevant knowledge from Management Information Systems/Decision Support Systems [MIS/DSS], decision making, motivational psychology, strategic management and organizational behavior literatures. Also, important aspects of the conceptual model were investigated empirically. The impact of the interactive characteristic of decision aids on decision confidence, and the effect of decision confidence on decision success were specifically investigated. A laboratory experiment was conducted with 253 subjects over a period of 5 weeks. The research setting involved subjects improving their reading skills. Based on the initial data, a reading specialist prepared reading plans. Subjects also interacted with a simulated expert system interface that was developed by the author. The simulated expert system delivered the reading plans prepared by the reading specialist. The subjects were trained based on the reading plans given to them, and finally, were tested at the end of the experiment to measure the improvement in their performance. Structural equation modeling was used to test the model. The LISREL VIE (personal computer version) software program was employed in the data analysis. The results showed that decision confidence had a positive effect on implementation effort, and the implementation effort had a positive effect on the outcome of the decision. The interactive characteristic of the decision aid, however, did not show any influence on decision confidence. Many other results found in the current research supported the findings in the extant research. The contributions, limitations and implications of results for researchers and practitioners are discussed.