Stakeholder preference for future land-use scenarios on the Southern High Plains of Texas under groundwater depletion

The economy and landscape of the Southern High Plains (SHP) of Texas are largely the products of decades of irrigated agriculture made possible by plentiful groundwater from the Ogallala Aquifer. Non-irrigated or “dryland” farming methods are often used to grow cotton, wheat, and other crops, but are risky due to the region’s semi-arid climate. Irrigated agriculture became prevalent following advances in pump and sprinkler technology, the development of low-cost fuels, and the introduction of federal subsidies that helped farmers access the seemingly inexhaustible aquifer. However, the rate of withdrawal from the aquifer has far exceeded the rate of recharge, resulting in wide-spread groundwater declines. In fact, many areas of the aquifer can no longer support irrigated agriculture. What will happen to the SHP if such trends in groundwater decline continue into the future on a larger scale?

A series of plausible future land-use scenarios for the SHP were constructed from literature review data and input from a panel of local land-use experts. The scenarios were presented to a random sample of agricultural land-users via a questionnaire. Respondents assigned preference rankings to the scenarios and discussed their motivations for land-use choices. The majority of respondents (43%) prefer a dryland farming scenario, probably because it represents the least amount of change from the present. A beef production scenario ranked second (29%), while a renewable energy scenario was least preferred (28%). All respondent groups prefer the present agricultural scenario over each future scenario. The primary reason for preference was cultural preservation (i.e., continuing a way-of-life). A series of case studies confirmed stakeholder preference for the status quo and indicated a desire for minimal government involvement in daily lives. The information gained from this study could be used to visualize and quantify land-use change, develop policies to address future problems and opportunities, or select a planning pathway to a desired future state.