Statistical analysis of variables associated with convective initiation along the dryline

This thesis deals with the issue of convective initiation along the Southern Great Plains Dryline. Multiple variables were calculated for dryline days during the springs of 2004 and 2005 in West Texas through the use of surface observations obtained from the West Texas Mesonet and composite soundings generated through interpolation between soundings released in Midland and Amarillo, TX. With these data, a stepwise logistic regression process was used to generate a forecasting equation for the likelihood that a present dryline will be associated with deep moist convection. This equation is then tested in four case studies to determine its accuracy and potential to be used in operational forecasting of convective initiation along the West Texas dryline.