Why do citizens protest in new democracies?: a comparative analysis of protest potential in Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea
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This study focuses on individual level explanations of unconventional forms of political participation in the three new democracies: Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea. The purpose of the study is to examine four most discussed approaches on protest: (1) Baseline, (2) Cognitive Skills, (3) Dissatisfaction, and (4) Value Change approaches. Various determinants from these four approaches at individual level are hypothesized to affect unconventional forms of political participation. First, the Baseline approach hypothesizes that younger, male, and more educated individuals with higher incomes are more likely to participate in protest activities. Second, the Cognitive Skills approach assumes that as individuals are more cognitively mobilized, they are more likely to engage in protest activities. Third, the Dissatisfaction approach hypothesizes that individuals' dissatisfaction on their governments and their material well-being and life increases the likelihood of participation in protest activities. Finally, the Value Change approach assumes that individuals' new values such as postmaterialist concerns promote their participation in protest activities. To test those four approaches nine predictor variables are raised. The data set employed in this study is derived from the first, second, and third World Values Surveys in 1981-82, 1990-93, and 1995-97 for the three new democracies. In order to test these main hypotheses and sub-hypotheses, this study conducts OLS regression analyses pooled data set of three countries as well as data set of each country. The results of the study define that there exist not only intra-differences, but also inter-state differences on the four approaches' explanatory power to protest potential in the three new democracies. For example. Cognitive Skills approach's explanatory power is stronger than that of Dissatisfaction approach in the three new democracies. Baseline factors and Value Change approach appear to have relatively strong explanatory power to protest potential in the three new democracies. However, Dissatisfaction approach's explanatory power to protest potential is very limited in the three new democracies. In addition, among the four approaches, Cognitive Skills approach appears to have the strongest explanatory power in relation to protest potential in Mexico and South Africa. The second powerful approach in the two nations is Baseline factors. In contrast, the strongest explanatory power in relation to protest potential in South Korea is made by Baseline factors and followed by Cognitive Skills and Value Change approaches. In addition, the results of the study also find that there exist differences on the four approaches' explanatory power to protest potential in the three new democracies by the process of democratization. Value Change approach's explanatory power to protest potential had increased during the process of democratization in the three new democracies, whereas Baseline factors. Cognitive Skills, and Dissatisfaction approaches' explanatory power to protest potential had decreased in that times.