A NEW COLD WAR? A RESURGENT RUSSIA AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY

Abstract

Recent events in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have prompted world leaders to opine that the world is entering a new Cold War. These concerns are based on the recent invasions of Crimea and Ukraine, action in Syria, Russian rhetoric, and military posturing by both sides. Russian history, strategy, and strategic culture provide context for the current state of affairs. These do not, however, guarantee that the present implementation of strategy will mirror the past and that the goals are to return to a Soviet-style, Cold War-era, bipolar world order. The issue is more complex then our own cognitive biases have allowed us to comprehend. Russia is resurgent and does pose a threat to stability, but its goal is neither a Cold War nor a hot war. Rather, it seeks to be treated as an equal and to reassert a greater level of control and influence over its former lands.