The Arab spring and U.S national security
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The manner in which the United States understands the background, motivations, and aspirations of the participants in the Arab Spring within the Maghreb Region will have significant implications for the development of future National Security Policy. In an effort to better quantify this understanding, this work presents an analysis of the following three alternative scenarios: 1) The Arab Spring leads to internal conflict and Regime Change of Pro American Ally, which is detrimental to U.S. National Security Interests; 2) The Arab Spring leads to internal conflict and Regime Change of Anti-American regime, which produces a positive change in US National Security Interests; and 3) The Arab Spring leads to a protracted civil war and national dismemberment, which harms US National Security Interests in the region. A thorough analysis of these three possibilities as led to a key realization. The relative stability of Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco is a definite positive aspect of the post-Arab Spring transition. However, there is still significant instability in Libya as well as Al Qaeda in the Maghreb’s (AQIM) continued capability to operate from Mali and southern Algeria. This will make the Maghreb region a potential flash point in Arab-Western relations, and it therefore also makes the Maghreb a region of strategic interest to the United States.