Demographic shift share analysis : long-term demographic change along the DART Red Line
Zeringue, Kathryn Ellen
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This report explores the long-term demographic changes occurring near Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART) stations. The study area chosen to employ the shift share method consists of two segments of DART stations along the Red Line in Dallas, Texas. The downtown DART study area consists of census tracts surrounding light rail stations: Cedars, Convention Center, Union Station, West End, Akard, St. Paul, and Pearl, and the DART suburban study area consists of census tracts around the following stations: City Place, Mockingbird Station, Lovers Lane, Park Lane, Walnut Hill, Forest Lane, and LBJ/Central. Using the shift share method with demographic data obtained through the US Census Bureau from 1990 and 2005-2009 American Community Survey estimates, this analysis illustrates demographic changes over time as a result of light rail transit investments. The results indicate that demographic characteristics of residents have changed considerably since the introduction of light rail in Dallas. Although the growth trends in the DART neighborhoods are comparable to the growth trends of the city, the DART census tracts on average have experienced greater increases in population, attracted an influx of highly educated residents with higher household incomes, and experienced significant increases in high-density development surrounding transit stations. For the most part, growth has been stronger locally than on a citywide level, and these trends have occurred most noticeably in the downtown DART neighborhoods, where transit and financial measures have sparked a development boom in which total population and housing units have grown by the hundredth and even thousandth percentile. Additionally, these demographic changes create unintended consequences that affect people of varying socio-economic statuses. Although the shift of highly educated, wealthier individuals in neighborhoods creates a greater social mix among residents, lower-income residents of these transit neighborhoods quickly get priced out of their neighborhoods.