Analysis of smuggler movement on multiple transportation networks

Abstract

We analyze an interdiction problem in which a nuclear-material smuggler can traverse multiple transportation networks, wherein each edge has an indigenous probability of evasion. Our objective is to determine the optimal locations of a limited number of radiation detectors at United States ports of entry across multiple networks (maritime, road and rail) so as to minimize the smuggler's total probability of evasion, from origin to destination. We choose geographically diverse potential origins and give the smuggler freedom to move across and between transportation networks. Further, we consider two different models of smuggler behavior in this context. Our analysis aims to provide a complete prioritization and picture of the threat at all ports of entry, leading to insight into good practical locations for detectors.