Understanding and profiting from the recession of 2007-2009
Frisch, Andrew Harman
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“The charm of history and its enigmatic lesson consist in the fact that, from age to age, nothing changes and yet everything is completely different.” – Aldous Huxley Aldous Huxley perfectly captures the elusive nature of how difficult it is to analyze history to gain insight to the present and future. Especially because the recent exponential growth in information and technology seem to be changing how the world operates. In actuality though, the same patterns continue to reappear. This paper strives to look back and first understand on a macroeconomic level what causes the business cycle of expansion and recession. Particularly, what historically triggers recessions and what are the consequences of those recessions? Using this historical knowledge, this paper will leave the reader with a better understanding of how a company can grow and thrive in the current difficult economic climate. Even though the expansion/recession cycle is still prevalent today, the affects of these swings during the 1980’s and 1990’s were dramatically reduced in what historians call “The Great Moderation”. The potential reasons for this moderation will be examined and their validity evaluated. This historical perspective combined with an understanding of more recent events allows for this paper to create recommendations for companies to help navigate the stormy economic waters ahead as we try to recover from the current recession. These recommendations hinge on policy advisors and politicians heeding the advice of the past. Lastly, I will explore potential alternate outcomes given poor fiscal and legislative policy by the ruling elite.