Hollywood : the sequel

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2008-05

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Abstract

Hollywood: The Sequel provides an historical account of film sequelization and its importance to the domestic entertainment industry from a marketing standpoint. Based on an extensive literature revenue, it was conjectured that the ratio of domestic sequel‐generated revenue to overall domestic revenue from the 1950s‐2000s would follow a classic diffusion pattern. Utilizing historical trade data from Variety magazine, Excel and SPSS databases were developed to determine the percentage of sequel‐generated domestic box office revenue from 1954‐2006, relative to overall revenue. The formal hypothesis was that from the 1950s‐2000s the adoption of sequels in the 70‐highest‐performing films follows a diffusion s‐curve. The goodness‐of‐fit of the historical dataset (N=3,710) with the s‐curve estimation‐algorithm was measured against the goodness‐of‐fit of other widely utilized curve estimation‐algorithms and the linear‐regression model— the curve estimation algorithms utilized included logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, compound, power, growth, exponential, and logistic. Several content‐analysis intensive research questions were asked and explored in the dissertation including the following: Do Epstein‐scores for sequels in the 70‐highest‐performing titles per year increase from the 1950s‐2000s? In the event Epstein‐scores for sequels in the 70‐highestperforming titles per year increase from the 1950s‐2000s, what growth model provides the best fit with the historical data? What is the growth rate associated with minority representation in lead roles in sequels from the 1950s‐2000s? How have sequels with minority leads fared in terms of box office performance, versus sequels overall from the 1950s‐2000s? What is the growth rate associated with female representation in lead roles in sequels from the 1950s‐2000s? And, finally, how have sequels with female leads fared in terms of box office performance, versus sequels overall from the 1950s‐2000s?

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