Technical, economic and risk analysis of multilateral wells

The oil and gas industry, more than at any time in the past, is highly affected by technological advancements, new products, drilling and completion techniques, capital expenditures (CAPEX), operating expenditures (OPEX), risk/uncertainty, and geopolitics. Therefore, to make a decision in the upstream business, projects require a thorough understanding of the factors and conditions affecting them in order to systematically analyze, evaluate and select the best choice among all possible alternatives. The objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assist engineers in the decision making process of maximizing access to reserves. The process encompasses technical, economic and risk analysis of various alternatives in the completion of a well (vertical, horizontal or multilateral) by using a well performance model for technical evaluation and a deterministic analysis for economic and risk assessment. In the technical analysis of the decision making process, the flow rate for a defined reservoir is estimated by using a pseudo-steady state flow regime assumption. The economic analysis departs from the utilization of the flow rate data which assumes a certain pressure decline. The financial cash flow (FCF) is generated for the purpose of measuring the economic worth of investment proposals. A deterministic decision tree is then used to represent the risks inherent due to geological uncertainty, reservoir engineering, drilling, and completion for a particular well. The net present value (NPV) is utilized as the base economic indicator. By selecting a type of well that maximizes the expected monetary value (EMV) in a decision tree, we can make the best decision based on a thorough understanding of the prospect. The method introduced in this study emphasizes the importance of a multi-discipline concept in drilling, completion and operation of multilateral wells.