Aid and Peace A Critique of Foreign Assistance, Conflict and Development

In 2000, the World Bank estimated that 2.8 billion people lived on incomes of less than $2.00 a day. Meanwhile about forty percent of the world's population endured conflict, most of them from the same subset. The implementation of foreign assistance to mitigate poverty and conflict is a key focus of politicians, bureaucrats and social scientists. The goal of this research is to discover relationships among foreign aid, conflict, and socio-economic development, and assess the implications.

Other evaluations either approach this issue from a hedonistic, theoretical standpoint, or follow a stylized project evaluation method. This research is intended to create a bridge between the two approaches by: 1) proposing theoretical models of assistance and conflict accounting for current status quo, and 2) introducing novel empirical methods to analyze the causes and effects of development, intervention and conflict.

The research begins with a comparative analysis of different schools of thought concerning foreign intervention, conflict and development. Contemporary philosophies and policies provide the basis for assumptions and inquiries addressed in the latter part of this dissertation. The review is followed by a critique of relevant data and their sources. A theoretical model of foreign assistance allocation and its possible impacts on conflict is proposed. The theoretical model is verified through an empirical examination using inductive casual inference methods. It is concluded that under current mandates and policies, aggregate foreign assistance has no effect on conflict and development in poor countries.

Research is then directed toward analyzing the effect of foreign assistance on conflict, disaggregated by sector. Agricultural and food security assistance were identified as the most effective method of mitigating conflict. The next segments of research concentrate on agricultural development. A model of agricultural development is proposed that will promote food security and mitigate conflict. In the last analysis, a direct causal relationship is found between commodity prices and conflict. Findings are summarized in the conclusion, and recommendations are provided for policy re-evaluations.