Assessment of U.S. Agriculture Sector and Human Vulnerability to a Rift Valley Fever Outbreak
Abstract
Foreign animal disease outbreaks can cause substantial economic losses. Policy makers need information on both the vulnerability of the food supply to disease epidemics and the impacts of alternative protection actions. This research focused on the assessment of the U.S. agricultural sector and human vulnerability to a Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreak and the value of a select set of alternative disease control strategies. RVF is a vector-borne, zoonotic disease that affects both livestock and humans; thus both animal and human consequences of an outbreak were examined.
This research was conducted in two parts. Livestock impact assessment used an integrated epidemic/economic model to examine the extent of RVF spread in the animal population and its consequences plus the outcome of implementing two different control strategies: emergency vaccination and larvicide vector control. The number of infected, aborted, and dead animals is best controlled by coupling vaccination along with larvicide, but results in the second highest median national welfare loss. Therefore, careful decisions must be made as to what actions should be taken.
Total national producer welfare is reduced with each scenario, and is more severe than the total national welfare loss (producer, consumer, and processor together). Consumer welfare is increased with each scenario due to a drop in prices of some commodities, and in some instances, an increase in supply as well. The majority of the national welfare loss can be attributed to the producers' and processors' loss in welfare. The highest damages are seen in the regions of the outbreak such as the South Central (SC). Other regions such as the Corn Belt, Lake States, and South East regions also see high damages due to price changes. The outbreak did not have substantial price effect on dairy products, but did have noticeable price changes for live cattle such as heifer calves, stocked yearling, and dairy calves. Prices for substitutes such as pork, chicken, and turkey experienced a price reduction, which can also be a factor resulting in consumer welfare gains.
Human impact assessment utilized an inferential procedure for estimating the human consequences which comprise of a cost of illness calculation to assess the dollar cost of human illnesses and deaths, as well as a Disability Adjusted Life Year calculation to give an estimate of the burden of disease on public health as a whole. With potential costs above